Updated: December 28, 2015
Many investors see dividend aristocrat McDonald’s Corp. (MCD) as a slam-dunk for big gains and another hike in 2016. Too bad – like many dividend growth disciples, betting on what they see in the rearview mirror.
Year-to-date, MCD has been piping hot: it’s surged 26% in 2015, good for the second-strongest rise among Dow components, behind only Nike Inc. (NKE). But I’m concerned McDonald’s could give back much of that gain in 2016.
A Big Bet on Breakfast
It’s worth noting that MCD didn’t make much headway until late October, when it reported third-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $1.40, up from $1.09 a year earlier and ahead of the Street’s forecast of $1.27. Revenue also topped expectations (though it was down from a year ago), helped by US same-store sales that rose for the first time in two years—a modest 0. …