Author Archive: Brett Owens

Election. Recession. No landing. Social unrest. Election contest.

Low beta, anyone?

Today we’ll talk calm in a sea of manic. A six-pack of tranquil dividend payers yielding up to 8.9%.

How do we know they’re tranquil? Beta, baby.

A stock with a beta above 1 is considered more volatile than “the market.”

A stock with a beta below 1 is considered less volatile.

Let’s say a stock had a beta of 0.5. This means it’s half as volatile as the market. If a 30% bear market swipes, this safety stock only loses 15%.

It’s an inexact science—I wouldn’t build projections per se around current beta.… Read more

Many investors are worried about a recession. Or The Federal Reserve easing too fast. Or not fast enough!

And then we have the upcoming election. Buckle up, my fellow contrarian.

Fair enough. But let’s remember that headline worries are usually priced in. The popular “threatdown” rarely thwarts the market.

On the other hand, we contrarians fret about the scenario that may come out of left field. We worry not about a hard landing. Or a soft landing. The underappreciated risk is the no landing that reignites inflation.

Rates down, assets up—let the good times roll! It will be fun for a while.… Read more

If you’re like me, when you see an outsized dividend yield, you stop for a second and immediately do the mental math. How much would we get back in payouts from, say, a 9.3% payer if we were to invest $10,000? Or $20,000? Or $100,000?

But savvy contrarians we are, we know to push back on this initial reaction and look deeper.

Because (as we contrarians know), those big yields can (and usually are) a danger sign.

Truth is, a rising dividend is only one possible reason for a high payout.

In fact, it’s the least likely one.

More often, a high yield stems from something we want no part of: a plunging share price.… Read more

If you’re as bullish on oil as I am, let’s look past vanilla bean favorites like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Great companies but a bit pricey, as they only yield 3% to 4%.

We’re better off with diversified energy funds that dish dividends up to 9%. Now we’re talking!

The conditions are right for another push ahead in energy’s crash-‘n’-rally cycle. The Middle East (‘nuff said). The Federal Reserve careening towards a “no landing” scenario. And the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) joining the global money printing party.

It could be high time for Texas tea’s next leg higher.… Read more

“If you own dividend-paying stocks, you’d be a fool to not be using Income Calendar,” my man Mark P. from California writes.

Tell ‘em, Mark!

We are devoted to retiring on dividends here at Contrarian Outlook. But a little bit of work in retirement is OK. As income investors, we should be able to project our income.

Note that I said a little bit of work. Not a lot! I am not interested in fiddling with spreadsheets until the end of time, and neither is my man Mark.

If you’re with us, why not hop onboard the Income Calendar train with Mark and me?… Read more

Last week’s oil-price drop has set us up to buy some top-flight energy dividends on the cheap. We’re going to grab one with a “hidden” 10.3% yield in just a moment.

First, this buy window goes well beyond a dip in the price of the goo. Fact is, oil dropped because things calmed (slightly) in the Middle East.

But of course, that can change again, and quickly. The real oil story for us is that the drop (along with a double-digit decline in natural-gas prices since the start of October) is happening as energy demand is set to rise.

So desperate is the need for energy these days that Big Tech is turning to long-shuttered nuclear reactors.… Read more

If you are a serious dividend investor, then you know the answer to this question:

How much dividend income are you going to make next month?

If you don’t know, then you’re not as dedicated to dividends as you thought. Disappointing, but fixable with Income Calendar.

And please, don’t tell me I’m being hard on you. If that’s the way you feel, then this is the tough love that you need. Your wakeup call for fall.

It’s time to treat your dividend investing like a business. Because it is.

And hey, I get it. We’re rolling towards 2025. Nobody wants to mess with tedious spreadsheets like these anymore.… Read more

I know it goes without saying that we’ve all loved watching our dividend stocks skyrocket this year. But October—as always, it seems—has amped-up the volatility.

The end of the year looks choppy, with a widening war in the Middle East and a contentious (to say the least!) election on tap here at home.

That makes now the time to sell any flawed dividends you may hold “on the rip.” We’ll break down one of these losers below. It’s the kind of stock that’s gone nowhere for so long that you may even have forgotten you own it!

But we’re not just going into a defensive crouch here, because despite the market run-up, there are still some cheap dividend growers on the board.… Read more

“Buy bonds!” – Contrarian Outlook, 2H 2022

Two years later, the herd finally hopped on our fixed-income bandwagon…

“Buy bonds!” – Wall Street, 2H 2024

Yes, it is satisfying to be right. But it also makes me nervous that mainstream (“vanilla”) investors now agree with us.

If you bought with us, you are sitting pretty. On the other hand, if you are trying to put new money to work today, this is a challenging time. I don’t like buying high and I especially avoid purchasing popular names.

Case in point, my favorite PIMCO products in the closed-end fund (CEF) space.… Read more