There are three stories moving markets right now:

1. The Iran War.
2. The AI revolution, as heavy investments in the tech cause both excitement and worry, particularly around how AI affects software companies.
3. The private-credit market. Because many software companies relied on credit from private, non-bank lenders, the world of private credit (which went from about $500 billion a decade ago to about $3 trillion today) is wobbling.

All three are combining to put pressure on private-credit funds. That, of course, is a headache for private-credit investors, especially because they were marketed on the idea that they offer lower volatility.

We are now seeing managers of private-credit funds field redemption requests that exceed these funds’ withdrawal “caps.”… Read more

Dividend raises mean something right now.

These are companies saying that they are going to make more money in the year ahead in the face of everything that is happening around the globe.

Let’s review six upcoming dividend raises—stocks paying up to 7.2% today!—dished by companies with the audacity to continue collecting cash regardless of what the world has in store for them.

“Frontrunning” these announcements, by the way, can be an excellent way to generate returns. As these dividends pop they will act like “magnets” pulling these associated stock prices higher. Post-raise we’ll often see that the current yields are unchanged.… Read more

Iran War volatility has tossed finance stocks “out with the bathwater.” It’s giving us a nice “second chance to buy” my favorite finance-focused dividend.

That would be the John Hancock Financial Opportunities Fund (BTO), which yields 7.7% today and, as we’ll see, trades at a discount that’s double what most investors think it is.

Why April 2026 Could Be April 2025 Redux (But With a Faster Rebound) 

To see why I think the market is making a mistake when it comes to finance stocks, let’s rewind to last year, when stocks sold off on the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs.

From the Spring 2025 Selloff …

That selloff has actually looked a lot like this one so far, with a similar depth:

… to Its 2026 “Twin”

Here’s what I really want to draw your attention to: In 2025, the finance sector—shown by its benchmark ETF in purple below, didn’t fall as hard as the rest of the market, and soared on the other side:

Finance Beat the S&P 500 in the 2025 Plunge …

Fast-forward to this year, and finance stocks are being hit harder in the Iran War fallout, falling much further than the market since the start of the year.… Read more

Half of individual investors think the stock market will be lower six months from now. That’s a level of bearishness that intrigues contrarians like us!

The weekly AAII Sentiment Survey reports 49.8% bears. The historical average is just 31%:

Most investors, at any given time, think the stock market is heading higher. And at any given time, they are likely to be right! We all know that over long time periods the path for the market is up.

However, it does so in fits and starts. Bull markets stroll the stairs on the way up but bear moves take the elevator lower.… Read more

Fear is up, markets are down—and we contrarians know that times like these are when we go shopping.

Yes, stocks are wobbling. And yes, those hoped-for rate cuts have dried up. Even one may be a stretch this year. But as worrisome as the situation in the Middle East is, as investors, we need to look beyond it.

Truth is, in the long run, AI will cap wage growth (it already is). That will take a bite out of inflation, and rates, while boosting profits—and our dividends along with them.

Fading Short-Term Fears

At times like this, we come back to our “Dividend Magnet” plays: Stocks growing payouts fast—and pulling up their share prices as they do.… Read more

There’s an activist story shaking the CEF world right now. And no matter how it plays out, it could lead to shrinking discounts in these high-yielding funds.

We’re going to break down what’s happening today. Then I’m going to give you my favorite way to line yourself up for one-time events like this—an activist play, a takeover, a stock split—in your own portfolio.

Ackman/CP Was the Classic Activist “Unlock”

One of the most successful activist plays came when Bill Ackman installed veteran railroader Hunter Harrison at Canadian Pacific Railway—now Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP). Five years later, the stock had more than doubled:

“Classic” Activist Move Ignited CP

But of course, not every activist move is this successful.… Read more

Oil is up, and everything else is down. Stocks. Bonds. Even gold, the traditional safe haven!

Real estate stocks are on sale as well. Which means we contrarians need to go shopping. Today we’ll look at four real estate investment trusts (REITs) yielding between 6% and 15%.

Right before the conflict started, I mentioned that we were looking at an attractive setup for price appreciation in REITworld.

As the Fed cuts rates, the dividends that REITs pay become increasingly attractive to income investors. Money markets don’t pay 5% any longer. Neither do many bond funds. But REITs pay … 

 

And rates are likely to continue lower due to the rollout of AI across the economy.

Today we’re going to talk about a closed-end fund (CEF) that not only helps us protect our portfolio as this market wobbles—it gives our income stream a boost, too.

The situation in the Middle East (and the market reaction to it) is behind our opportunity here. That and the fact that this fund has proven that its strategy is purpose-built for times like these.

But that said, this isn’t a fund we can “set and forget”: Timing matters (on both the buy and sell side)—and the current moment is particularly well suited to its portfolio and strategy.

The fund we’re going to discuss holds everyday stocks, like those in the S&P 500.… Read more

“Two Pacificos, please?” I asked the bartender.

(When in doubt, hit the lager button. The other option was Lagunitas IPA, a 6%+ refreshment. A bit heavy for our school fundraiser.)

I handed the second Pacifico to my buddy—responsible dad rule two, keep school event double fisting to a minimum—who kindly came to support the cause. I asked my friend how his Saturday was. Interior design work, he explained.

“Tell me more,” I fished…knowing that he was most definitely not an interior designer.

He’d taken a picture of his new house, uploaded it to AI, and asked for a new layout.… Read more

Even Jay Powell seemed lost.

“The thing I want to emphasize is that nobody knows,” the beleaguered Fed chair sighed at last week’s presser, when asked about the effects of the latest flare-up in the Middle East.

It’s easy to see why. The poor man is in a jam not of his making. Futures markets see fewer and fewer rate cuts on the horizon. And more forecasts see a bounce in inflation—maybe even stagflation.

To be sure, no one at the Fed (or anywhere else) had $100 oil on their bingo card in January!

The mainstream crowd, of course, is just as shocked as the experts at that development.… Read more