Let me take you back to April 2001 for a second. Because that year brought a key turning point for income investors.

I’m talking about the launch of the SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR). The fund rolled down the skids with a simple mission: Give investors an easy way to buy a diversified basket of real estate investment trusts (a.k.a. REITs) in one low-cost index fund.

It was exciting because, back then, REITs had outperformed stocks when their high payouts were reinvested. And their dividend yields were much higher than those of the typical S&P 500 name, too.

Backed by reliable rents, as well as the constant need for space to store and sell things (for businesses), as well as places to live, work and have fun (for individuals), the sense was that demand for real estate would never end.… Read more

Think it’s a good idea to ask ChatGPT to run your retirement portfolio?

(I know that you don’t, my careful contrarian. But we both have friends that are more than tempted to trust the bots! Here are the cautionary numbers that show AI models are not very good at running money.)

A startup called Nof1 recently ran an experiment. It handed $10,000 each to Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok and four other leading AI tools. The humans gave “seed capital” to the bots.

Here’s $10K. You have two weeks to trade US stocks. Make some money. Now GO.

How much do you think each bot turned its initial $10K into?… Read more

Most people think you can’t time the market. That’s nonsense. Not only is it possible, it’s easy.

That’s a bold claim, I know.

Today I’m going to show you how to do it with far less risk than the average investor would face. The best part? We don’t have to wait for the next panic to put our plan to work. We can start now.

This strategy not only helps shield us in a panic—it leverages market chaos for bigger gains (and a fatter income stream) down the road. That’s in large part because of this plan’s “secret weapon”: dividends. Or more specifically dividend growth.… Read more

There’s a clear “disconnect” happening in the US economy right now. And most investors are on the wrong side of it.

Funny thing about it is, it’s pretty obvious. We hear about both sides of it in the news daily, but few people truly see it for what it is. And the 10.5% dividend we’re going to discuss today is the perfect play on this misconception.

The first part of our opportunity? Consumer sentiment, which I’m sure you’ve heard is in the tank:

Here’s the University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey over the last 50 years. At the right side of this chart we see that the current level is the lowest it’s been in all of that time.… Read more

Using vanilla websites for your dividend research? Be careful.

Many of these mainstream sites miss the most important payment of the year for “special” dividend companies!

This oversight could have us overlooking thousands of dollars in potential yearly income. And yields up to 14.6%!

Would you believe what this 14.6% payer is listed at on these lame sites? 0.2%. Zero-point-two percent.

Yup. Which is why we contrarians do our research with a focus on special dividends.

Specials uncommon enough that many investors don’t know much (if anything) about them. In short, they’re one-time cash payouts, usually the result of a massive capital boost—say, selling off a piece of the company or delivering blowout annual profits.… Read more

Closed-end funds (CEFs) yield around 8% today—and that’s on average. Plenty yield more—and deliver their payouts safely, predictably and often monthly, too.

Members of my CEF Insider service know this. As I write this, our portfolio yields a high 8.8% on average, even as many of our funds’ prices have risen with this year’s strong market. And 12 of our current 21 holdings pay us every month.

All that said, we also know the old adage that something that seems too good to be true usually is. That also applies to CEF yields, especially when we spot a vastly overinflated one (24.6%, say).… Read more

Two dividend cuts in the last two quarters, and we are buying.

Wait. What?

When do we ever chase one dividend cut, let alone two? Let me tell you when, my fellow contrarian!

A Terrible Divvie Trend and We’re In?

Let’s start with the fantastic yield. At 15.3%, FS KKR Capital Corp (FSK) has our attention. That doesn’t mean buy—we don’t chase headline yields around here without doing our homework. But in this case, management is redirecting the money saved from these cuts into share buybacks. 

Which means we’ll likely see price appreciation as shares move closer to fair value.… Read more

Last week’s hot inflation reports have handed us a timely “two-step” 10.3% dividend opportunity. We’re going to jump on it today.

Here’s our plan:

• Step 1: We grab a 10.3% average dividend now, to fend off rising inflation, then …
• Step 2: We ride along as interest rates fall, driving up the value of the two funds behind that steady 10.3% divvie.

I know, I know. How can I be talking about falling rates at a time like this?

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Oil is at $100. And last week saw two hot inflation reports: CPI hit 3.8% in April, and the PPI (producer price index) soared 6%.… Read more

Stocks are up, and the media is finally coming around to what we’ve been saying at my CEF Insider service for months now.

Last week, The Economist wrote a breathless piece about how the US economy is firing on all cylinders—and fears that a recession will sideswipe stocks are just plain wrong.

We’re happy to see a leading publication like The Economist come around on this point, of course. Even better, we now we have the data to prove it:

Across the board, the S&P 500 saw a 27.7% earnings gain in the first quarter. That’s shocking when, historically, profits have risen in the 5% to 8% range.… Read more

Let’s capitalize on analyst incompetence—and bank yields up to 18.3%, with upside to boot!

A widely cited academic study on analyst target price accuracy found that only about 54% of 12-month price targets correctly predicted even the direction of the subsequent price move.

Fifty-four percent. On direction alone. That’s barely better than a coin flip!

Analysts give specific price targets to stocks like they are scripture. In reality, they don’t even know if the thing is going to move up or down.

And it gets uglier. A 2024 Yale School of Management study found that analysts systematically delay downgrading stocks after bad news—to curry favor with the companies they cover.… Read more