Author Archive: Brett Owens

The average S&P 500 drawdown during a recession since 1990 is 40%. Recent economic data show that we are now careening towards a slowdown. Check out the bearish trends from Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is standing watch as DOGE shifts resources and money away from the public sector. The Secretary needs lower long-term interest rates so that he can sell bonds without breaking Uncle Sam’s bank!

How does this work? Last month alone, DOGE chopped 63,000 jobs. Bessent welcomes this softening of the labor market—increasing the available labor supply—because he has $9 trillion in federal debt to refinance this year.… Read more

Let me start with a prediction: Interest rates are going to fall this year—and by more than most people think.

When that happens, bonds—including one discounted 8.7%-paying bond fund we’ll get into shortly—are poised to head skyward.

Rates down, bonds up. That’s the law of Bond-land. It’s a simple fact that a lot of people, hopelessly caught up in the “tariffs cause inflation” storyline, are missing.

Bessent (and Trump) Go Over Jay Powell’s Head

Forget about the Fed standing pat on rates last week. Forget about Jay Powell saying he’s waiting for more clarity on the Trump administration’s policies before setting the ultimate direction of rates.… Read more

When C-level types lay down five, six, even seven figures to scoop up shares, we listen.

After all, there is only one reason why executives buy their own stock. They believe the price is going up.

Insider buying is a great cue. But it is important for us to understand what “signal” buys look like.

Many executives have automatic buying programs, so like clockwork, we’ll see them snap up a few thousand shares at, say, the start of every quarter.

So what we really care about are sudden acquisitions across one or more insiders that fall well outside of their normal buying habits.… Read more

I’d like to share my exclusive “Made for 2025” Dividend Plan with you. It’s a simple, safe strategy that identifies dividend stocks with payouts set to surge higher.

As these divvies pop, so do their associated stock prices.

The truth is, this proven system works no matter what the economy, or the Fed (or even the executive branch of the federal government!) is doing. It’s the path to peppy price gains from protected payers.

Let’s talk about a timely example—a dividend dip to enjoy! On the campaign trail, President-Elect Trump presented us with a pullback in perennial dividend grower Deere & Co (DE) thanks to these comments:

“They’ve announced a few days ago that they are going to move a lot of their manufacturing business to Mexico.

Every so often here at Contrarian Outlook, we get questions from readers about investments sporting yields that are, frankly, ridiculous. 

Case in point: The 85% forward yield (as of this writing) on a fund called the YieldMax Ultra Income Strategy ETF (ULTY): Eighty. Five. Percent.

Think about that for a second: With a 85% yield, you’re getting your entire upfront investment back in about a year. Pretty sweet deal, right?

Well, not so fast.

Before I go further, I should say that when it comes to dividends, one thing we demand at my Contrarian Income Report advisory is that a stock or fund at least “returns its yield.”… Read more

The stock market is currently caught up in its deepest slide since July. We contrarians are prepared to move quickly for deep-dip-buying opportunities.

Right now, I’m paying close attention to already-high-paying corners of the market, where we can get 9.4% to 13.1% yields right this very minute. I’m talking about from the business development company (BDC) industry, where those sky-high yields aren’t rare—they’re the norm. In fact, right now, if we threw darts at a board of BDCs, we’d be likelier to hit a double-digit payout than one in the single digits.

But it’s not just the yields I love—it’s the access.… Read more

“I don’t have to make and update my goofy spreadsheets anymore!” my man Peter B. from New Hampshire writes.

Tell ‘em, Peter!

We are devoted to retiring on dividends here at Contrarian Outlook. But a little bit of work in retirement is OK. As income investors, we should be able to forecast our income.

Note that I said a little bit of work. Not a lot! I am not interested in fiddling with spreadsheets until the end of time, and neither is my man Peter.

If you’re with us, why not hop aboard the Income Calendar train with Peter and me?… Read more

At this point, I don’t think I really need to say that Trump 2.0 is a lot different than Trump 1.0. And one of those differences—which very few people are talking about—is a huge tailwind for the two big dividends we’re going to dive into today.

Think back to our first go-’round with Trump. Remember his relationship with Jay Powell? Terrible, right?

Back in 2018, he tweeted that Powell and the Fed had “no sense, no guts, no vision” when they failed to cut rates as much as the president wanted. A year later, he called Powell an “enemy.”

And that’s just a small sample of the torment unleashed upon poor Jay!… Read more

If Trump 2.0 rhymes with Trump 1.0, then this is an intriguing time to consider small cap dividends. Let me explain—and then we’ll highlight a handful of 11.1% to 12.6% dividend ideas.

In 2016, smaller companies popped for weeks amid largely sentiment over what President Donald Trump’s election would mean for the market broadly and small caps specifically. But that sentiment-related pop eventually turned into years of underperformance as theory became reality—and unfavorable conditions forced investors to stop betting on small caps as a group, and instead separate winners and losers.

Fast-forward to Trump 2.0. I wrote in December that small caps were soaring following Trump’s second electoral victory in hopes that reduced regulations will let these companies run free.… Read more

Uncertainty appears to be the theme of 2025. From tariffs to geopolitics, we have a nonstop flow of news that has vanilla investors quite rattled.

CNN’s Fear and Greed Index dipped back into the Extreme Fear zone earlier this week. Markets don’t like ambiguity. But that does not mean that we income investors need to sell everything. Heck, or anything! This is a split stock market and we contrarians are rolling with the dividend victors.

The bifurcated financial landscape is not news to us. We discussed the likelihood of major “winners and losers” in Trump 2.0 immediately after the November election:

Things have the potential to get wild.