Author Archive: Brett Owens

The economy is slowing. And if you believe that these tariff-tapping brakes are going to land us in a recession, these tax-equivalent yields up to 12.4% are for you.

This is the time to recession-proof our retirement holdings. The new administration appears to want to get a slowdown “out of the way” early. Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast says the economy is already shrinking:

Meanwhile the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment report shows that confidence is falling fast. The index dropped to 57.9 in March—its lowest level since November 2022:

Back then we were emerging from a sharp and painful 10-month bear market.… Read more

Don’t buy into this trade panic—truth is, the market’s “tariff tantrum” is a goldmine for us contrarians. Today we’re going to mine it with two stocks whose dividends are skyrocketing—including one that’s pumped up its payout by 410% in the last decade alone.

Worrying Times Are When Fortunes Are Made

We contrarians know that times like these are when the mainstream crowd makes its biggest mistakes. And those blunders give us the chance to snag the strong, and growing, dividends they’ve tossed in a panic.

Like the first of two stocks we’re going to talk about today. From a first-level analysis, this Ireland-based company looks like it’ll get run over the next time “Tariff Man” holds a press conference.… Read more

Interest rates are trending lower, which means real estate investment trusts (REITs) are rallying. These “bond proxies” tend to move alongside bonds and opposite rates.

If you believe the economy is likely to continue slowing, then select REITs are intriguing income plays here. Especially those yielding between 7.2% and 13.2%, which we’ll discuss shortly.

As I’ve been saying for a few weeks, the real story is in longer rates, namely the 10-year Treasury. I spelled this out in a recent article.

To recap, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been upfront that he and President Trump are focused on the 10-year Treasury rate (the “long” end of the yield curve), and not the Fed benchmark (the “short” end).… Read more

The average S&P 500 drawdown during a recession since 1990 is 40%. Recent economic data show that we are now careening towards a slowdown. Check out the bearish trends from Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is standing watch as DOGE shifts resources and money away from the public sector. The Secretary needs lower long-term interest rates so that he can sell bonds without breaking Uncle Sam’s bank!

How does this work? Last month alone, DOGE chopped 63,000 jobs. Bessent welcomes this softening of the labor market—increasing the available labor supply—because he has $9 trillion in federal debt to refinance this year.… Read more

Let me start with a prediction: Interest rates are going to fall this year—and by more than most people think.

When that happens, bonds—including one discounted 8.7%-paying bond fund we’ll get into shortly—are poised to head skyward.

Rates down, bonds up. That’s the law of Bond-land. It’s a simple fact that a lot of people, hopelessly caught up in the “tariffs cause inflation” storyline, are missing.

Bessent (and Trump) Go Over Jay Powell’s Head

Forget about the Fed standing pat on rates last week. Forget about Jay Powell saying he’s waiting for more clarity on the Trump administration’s policies before setting the ultimate direction of rates.… Read more

When C-level types lay down five, six, even seven figures to scoop up shares, we listen.

After all, there is only one reason why executives buy their own stock. They believe the price is going up.

Insider buying is a great cue. But it is important for us to understand what “signal” buys look like.

Many executives have automatic buying programs, so like clockwork, we’ll see them snap up a few thousand shares at, say, the start of every quarter.

So what we really care about are sudden acquisitions across one or more insiders that fall well outside of their normal buying habits.… Read more

I’d like to share my exclusive “Made for 2025” Dividend Plan with you. It’s a simple, safe strategy that identifies dividend stocks with payouts set to surge higher.

As these divvies pop, so do their associated stock prices.

The truth is, this proven system works no matter what the economy, or the Fed (or even the executive branch of the federal government!) is doing. It’s the path to peppy price gains from protected payers.

Let’s talk about a timely example—a dividend dip to enjoy! On the campaign trail, President-Elect Trump presented us with a pullback in perennial dividend grower Deere & Co (DE) thanks to these comments:

“They’ve announced a few days ago that they are going to move a lot of their manufacturing business to Mexico.

Every so often here at Contrarian Outlook, we get questions from readers about investments sporting yields that are, frankly, ridiculous. 

Case in point: The 85% forward yield (as of this writing) on a fund called the YieldMax Ultra Income Strategy ETF (ULTY): Eighty. Five. Percent.

Think about that for a second: With a 85% yield, you’re getting your entire upfront investment back in about a year. Pretty sweet deal, right?

Well, not so fast.

Before I go further, I should say that when it comes to dividends, one thing we demand at my Contrarian Income Report advisory is that a stock or fund at least “returns its yield.”… Read more

The stock market is currently caught up in its deepest slide since July. We contrarians are prepared to move quickly for deep-dip-buying opportunities.

Right now, I’m paying close attention to already-high-paying corners of the market, where we can get 9.4% to 13.1% yields right this very minute. I’m talking about from the business development company (BDC) industry, where those sky-high yields aren’t rare—they’re the norm. In fact, right now, if we threw darts at a board of BDCs, we’d be likelier to hit a double-digit payout than one in the single digits.

But it’s not just the yields I love—it’s the access.… Read more

“I don’t have to make and update my goofy spreadsheets anymore!” my man Peter B. from New Hampshire writes.

Tell ‘em, Peter!

We are devoted to retiring on dividends here at Contrarian Outlook. But a little bit of work in retirement is OK. As income investors, we should be able to forecast our income.

Note that I said a little bit of work. Not a lot! I am not interested in fiddling with spreadsheets until the end of time, and neither is my man Peter.

If you’re with us, why not hop aboard the Income Calendar train with Peter and me?… Read more