Author Archive: Michael Foster

The spike in volatility we’ve seen in the last month has gotten me thinking a lot about the last decade—when bonds were a bust and tech ruled the day.

Put yourself back in that (seemingly innocent) time for a second.

If you had money to invest back then, you had one choice: stocks. With rock-bottom interest rates, bonds were a bust. And stocks—particularly tech stocks, which tend to do better when rates are low—soared.

You can clearly see the massive scale of the 2010’s tech surge in the chart below, with tech shown by the benchmark ETF for the sector, in purple.… Read more

Just a week ago, I wrote to you about the dangers of investing in a tired investor go-to called the 60/40 portfolio.

You know the one—the so-called “rule” that you should invest 60% of your holdings in stocks and 40% in bonds to reduce your overall volatility.

But investing this way—according to arbitrary standards like 60/40—is a recipe for leaving money on the table, especially when we’ve got a terrific way to get a much bigger dividend stream from stocks, which we’ll get to in a moment.

Your Odds of Long-Term Profits in S&P 500 Stocks? 100%

I’m coming back to this topic so soon because I recently read Ben Carlson’s fantastic analysis of the 60/40 portfolio.… Read more

Think back just a couple weeks: The “yen carry trade” had investors running scared, and we had a terrific opportunity to buy stocks—better still our favorite income plays on stocks: closed-end funds (CEFs) yielding 8%+.

But wow, was that window brief! Stocks have more than recovered since, and are what I’d call highly valued, with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 27.5.

Let me be clear: I’m not saying stocks are overvalued: They’re likely to keep posting good returns because earnings are rising, and the economy is still dodging the recession we’ve been warned about for three years now.… Read more

When I see people touting the 60/40 portfolio, I kind of feel like Haley Joel Osment’s character in the Sixth Sense. But instead of seeing dead people, I see dead ideas.

You likely know what I’m talking about: a portfolio that seeks to automatically balance risk by holding 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds.

It sounds sensible enough, but history shows that people who invest by this rule have been leaving a lot of money on the table for a long time:

60/40 Portfolio Pays Too High a Price for Low Volatility

One quick glance at US stocks, seen above in purple through the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and bonds, in orange through the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), over the last decade shows a problem.… Read more

With stocks again on the upswing after the August 5 pullback, the appetite for risk is back!

Rising markets are terrific, of course. But they do bring dangers. One is that they might tempt some people to abandon sound long-term investing and take a stab at more speculative approaches, like day trading.

Before we go too far into whether you can actually make a reliable return from day trading, I’d say that to be a successful day trader, you should be aiming to beat the market … and a lot of ink has been spilled about how active managers—and I’d include individual investors here—can’t do that on the regular.… Read more

Stock market predictions, of course, are just that—predictions. All of them (including mine!) should be taken with a grain of salt.

I normally prefer to avoid making them. But every now and then I partake because, well, the prediction game is fun! And we do need some kind of forecast to work from when it comes to buying stocks—and our favorite income plays: 8%+ yielding closed-end funds (CEFs).

The key, of course, is knowing when to stick to your forecasts and when to change tack. So as we move past the August 5 correction and toward the final third of 2024, it’s a good time to check in on a couple predictions I made back in January and see how they’re playing out.… Read more

I never thought I’d see the day when “yen carry trade” was splashed across the financial news. But here we are.

We talked about this weird setup, and how it sparked the August 5 market crash, in Monday’s article. Today we’re going to get into what it all means for closed-end funds (CEFs), including the opportunities now available to us in these high yielders.

First up, while the press was quick to paint the correction as a “made in Japan” event, we do have some signs of a slowdown starting to appear in America.

Is This the Recession We’ve Been Waiting For?… Read more

What the heck happened last Monday? I know I don’t have to tell you that the market dropped off a cliff, only to float back higher as the week continued.

The media has been saying that it was all about the latest jobs report in the US, which came out on Friday and simply wasn’t that bad—certainly not the kind of result that deserves the response we saw from stocks.

To put it in perspective, the NASDAQ 100’s fall in a single day was worse than what we saw in the pandemic, when the global economy literally shut down.

Despite the rise in the unemployment rate, joblessness is still relatively low historically speaking, companies are defaulting less than a few months ago (and at historically low levels), and the US economy is set to grow well over 2% this year, after strong growth last year.… Read more

When legendary activist Bill Ackman makes a move, the investment world notices. So when he said he was going to jump into our favorite income plays—8%+ yielding closed-end funds (CEFs)—it certainly got our attention.

We broke it all down in a July 11 article, specifically how Ackman’s latest move—a plan to launch a new CEF with $25 billion in assets under management (making it by far the biggest CEF ever)—was likely to send these funds soaring.

Notice I used the word “was” a number of times just now. That’s because Ackman scrapped the plan just last week.

Ackman’s sudden about-face left many heads spinning in CEF-land.… Read more

In last Thursday’s article, we talked about one of my favorite “low-drama,” high-paying investments—I’m talking 7%+ payouts here.

Those would be covered-call funds, which we look to in times of higher market volatility, which we’ve seen recently and I see as more likely as we move toward year end. At times like these, covered-call funds are a good option, as their option strategy cuts their volatility and boosts their income. Check out that article for our full breakdown of how this works.

Today we’re going to go one step further and delve into how these funds fit into your portfolio. We’ll also talk tickers.… Read more