The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an “historic” 50 basis points. Then, interest rates soared.

Wait. What?

The Federal Funds Rate is a target (technically a target range) that influences short-term rates in the economy. Money market funds, for example, pay interest based on this benchmark. They pay 0.5% less today than two months ago due to the Fed cut.

Long-term rates, on the other hand, are not controlled by the Fed. Not directly, at least. The global bond market is a cool $130 trillion. Far too large for anyone, even Uncle Sam, to control.

Hence the recent fixed-income paradox.… Read more

I know things feel pretty tense right now. But don’t be pulled into the trap of thinking everything is up in the air these days.

Truth is, there are always rock-solid trends out there that no one can change. I’m talking about sure things that outlast presidencies, wars, inflation, deflation, you name it.

One of my faves: soaring food demand, which is tied straight into global population growth—hands-down the most “baked in” (sorry, I couldn’t resist!) trend there is.

According to the UN, there will be 9.7 billion people on the planet in 2050, nearly 2 billion more than now. That means we’re going to need a lot more food.… Read more

With more volatility likely as we move past the election and into late 2024, retirement planning might not be top of mind for you right now.

I get it.

But with investing—income investing, especially—it’s critical to keep the long term in focus. And over the long term, the direction of the markets is up.

When we invest in closed-end funds (CEFs), we get an extra advantage: High income, which often comes our way monthly. The average CEF yields 8% now. That’s roughly the long-term average annualized price gain of the S&P 500, depending on the timeframe you look at, delivered to us in dividend cash every year.… Read more

Election. Recession. No landing. Social unrest. Election contest.

Low beta, anyone?

Today we’ll talk calm in a sea of manic. A six-pack of tranquil dividend payers yielding up to 8.9%.

How do we know they’re tranquil? Beta, baby.

A stock with a beta above 1 is considered more volatile than “the market.”

A stock with a beta below 1 is considered less volatile.

Let’s say a stock had a beta of 0.5. This means it’s half as volatile as the market. If a 30% bear market swipes, this safety stock only loses 15%.

It’s an inexact science—I wouldn’t build projections per se around current beta.… Read more

One often-overlooked way for closed-end funds (CEFs) to give us a profit boost is for management to buy back a fund’s shares.

By now, buybacks are probably familiar to most investors: With “regular” stocks, buybacks reduce a company’s share count, which boosts earnings per share and other per-share metrics, indirectly boosting share prices.

With CEFs, buybacks have a bit of a different effect. With these high-yielding funds, we want to focus instead on how buybacks affect the discount to net asset value (NAV, or the value of a CEF’s underlying portfolio).

Buybacks, Fixed Share Counts Help Management “Control” CEF Discounts

Members of my CEF Insider service know that we love discounts to NAV because they’re the primary indicator of CEF value.… Read more

Many investors are worried about a recession. Or The Federal Reserve easing too fast. Or not fast enough!

And then we have the upcoming election. Buckle up, my fellow contrarian.

Fair enough. But let’s remember that headline worries are usually priced in. The popular “threatdown” rarely thwarts the market.

On the other hand, we contrarians fret about the scenario that may come out of left field. We worry not about a hard landing. Or a soft landing. The underappreciated risk is the no landing that reignites inflation.

Rates down, assets up—let the good times roll! It will be fun for a while.… Read more

If you’re like me, when you see an outsized dividend yield, you stop for a second and immediately do the mental math. How much would we get back in payouts from, say, a 9.3% payer if we were to invest $10,000? Or $20,000? Or $100,000?

But savvy contrarians we are, we know to push back on this initial reaction and look deeper.

Because (as we contrarians know), those big yields can (and usually are) a danger sign.

Truth is, a rising dividend is only one possible reason for a high payout.

In fact, it’s the least likely one.

More often, a high yield stems from something we want no part of: a plunging share price.… Read more

If you’re as bullish on oil as I am, let’s look past vanilla bean favorites like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Great companies but a bit pricey, as they only yield 3% to 4%.

We’re better off with diversified energy funds that dish dividends up to 9%. Now we’re talking!

The conditions are right for another push ahead in energy’s crash-‘n’-rally cycle. The Middle East (‘nuff said). The Federal Reserve careening towards a “no landing” scenario. And the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) joining the global money printing party.

It could be high time for Texas tea’s next leg higher.… Read more

I get it if you’re a bit wary of this latest market rally: We’ve got a volatile (to say the least!) election now days away. And while the Fed says rates are headed lower, there’s still a lingering uncertainty about where, exactly, they’ll land.

While a bit of anxiety is understandable, we do not want to make the same mistake many “vanilla” investors do at times like these: go all into cash.

For one, humans are terrible at predicting the future—remember those warnings of a 100% chance of a recession in 2023?—so safe to say a good number of today’s investment worries are unlikely to come to pass.… Read more

I have to laugh when I hear a pundit say that individual investors can’t beat the S&P 500 (and you and I both know this is something we hear quite regularly!).

Truth is, it’s not that hard. Heck, you really only have to choose an ETF from a different sector, like real estate investment trusts (REITs)!

REITs Beat Stocks in the Long Run

As you can see, these “landlords”—shown by the performance of the benchmark SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR) in purple above—have easily outpaced the S&P 500 for the 20 years following the ETF’s inception back in 2001.

That outperformance occurred even with the subprime-mortgage crisis (which was obviously real estate focused) and the pandemic selloff (which hit REITs particularly hard, shuttering malls, warehouses and offices across the world).… Read more