About a month ago, Mike Bird, the Wall Street editor for The Economist, tweeted (or “X-ed,” I guess I should say) the following: “You have to concede that there would be a form of stupid, ridiculous beauty in the S&P 500 closing completely flat for April.”

And, well, after all the drama we saw in April, that’s pretty much where we landed.

A Wild—But in the End, Sideways—April for Stocks

I once met Mike for coffee, and he’s a friendly, intelligent person, so it’s easy for me to agree with him here: Yes, the market behaved stupidly in April, starting with the tariff selloff and ending with the first hints of a deal with China (with various back-and-forth moves on tariffs in between).… Read more

The UK trade deal was apparently the tasty egg roll before the main course of lower Chinese tariffs. A delightful order for this dividend grower, ready to feast on the “Peking duck” of trade agreements.

China is one of the biggest buyers of US crops, importing tens of billions of dollars of American agriculture every year. Soybeans and corn meander from Midwest farms all the way across the Pacific to feed China’s large (and growing) livestock industry. Higher US-China tariffs have weighed on US farmers’ profitability—and in turn, on business for key ag suppliers like Corteva Agriscience (CTVA).

So the “trade truce” with China (announced Monday) is quite bullish for Corteva.… Read more

Are we careening towards a recession, or is a pickup in inflation the big threat to the stock market?

The negative first quarter GDP print has recession fears in the financial headlines. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jay Powell remains fixated on inflation.

Ironically, both may come to pass. Which means we must prepare our portfolios for a slowdown that is quickly followed by a pickup in prices.

Let’s put one smart lender on our “Goldilocks” watch list. This ticker yields 10% today (with some nice “dividend insurance” we’ll talk about in a moment). But the key point is that it profits as inflation—and interest rates—tick higher.… Read more

I get it: For many people, the rough start to 2025 conjures (painful!) memories of 2022.

It’s an easy comparison to make. But we must resist doing so. Because unlike in 2022, today’s volatility is caused by panic alone. That’s the kind of situation we contrarians love!

Nonetheless, I get it if you still want to be cautious. With that in mind, I’ve got a fund that gives us full market exposure with a key “hedge”—and a growing 8.1% dividend, too.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. Let’s first talk about what’s causing this “Chicken Littleism” in the first place.… Read more

While vanilla income investors limit their search to mere “common” dividends, we contrarians know where the real payout party is at—with preferred divvies.

Let’s talk about three preferred-stock vehicles that pay from 6.9% to 9.4%. All three of these funds dish monthly dividends.

And these payouts receive preferential treatment over common-stock dividends, making them safer than the common payouts offered by regular ol’ equities.

There are four main ways to buy preferreds, and three of them have some serious headaches and drawbacks:

1. Individual preferred stocks: Research resources for individual preferred shares are few, far between and often require expensive paid subscriptions.

Can you and I beat the legendary returns of Warren Buffett? Absolutely. What’s more, we can do it while “translating” a slice of our gains into a big income stream (with special dividends on the table, too).

I’ll show you how in a moment.

First, we need to talk about how the 94-year-old Oracle of Omaha, who is now stepping back from the position of president and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A), has changed the course of investing over the years.

Every year, as you likely know, Buffett releases a simple letter to investors showing what’s happened with Berkshire’s portfolio.… Read more

Vanilla investors fixate on price. We contrarians know better.

It’s all about the NAV. Net asset value, baby.

Price is what people pay at a given moment. But people panic. Many like to buy high—and sell low!

NAV, on the other hand, is what something is worth at that same moment. Price and NAV can become disconnected, especially during emotional market moments. When this happens, it is often a buying opportunity for careful contrarians like us.

Let’s take a pop quiz. Think about the funds you hold in your portfolio. What was your top performing NAV for the month of April?… Read more

It’s no secret this economy is slowing—at least in the near term. That’s given us contrarians a (time-limited!) buy window on the “dividend twofer” we’re going to dive into today.

One of the tickers we’ll talk about below pays a sturdy 7% now. The other yields 4.9% and sports a source of upside no one has noticed (except us, of course!).

Both are utility plays, which tend to rise as the economy slows, lowering interest rates as it does. Let’s get into this opportunity, starting with last week’s GDP report, which said, yes, the US economy did shrink to start the year.… Read more

We just saw the first real signs that the “vibecession” is becoming something more—and this is our cue to pluck from our portfolios (or avoid adding!) three funds that are way into bubble territory. (Names and tickers below.)

Let’s start with that slowdown signal.

In this chart, from Apollo Global Management, we see that the total number of Americans who are only making the minimum payments on their credit cards is at its highest level in over a decade. This tells us that inflation and a slowdown in the job market are putting direct (and increasing) pressure on household budgets.

There are other signs, too.… Read more

Dividends over drama, please. Like these five steady stocks that yield 7.2%, on average.

Back in school they taught us that to increase returns, investors had to take on additional risk. This was a financial engineering class at Cornell University, by the way. The prof should have known better, but he didn’t, because he was a researcher and not an actual investor.

It’s a common mistake in academia, and those who try to invest “buy the book.” The book says more beta means more returns. Well, this text is often wrong!

Big dividends and low volatility are a beautiful combination.

Volatility can be measured several ways.… Read more