Author Archive: Brett Owens

As we income investors roll into Trump 2.0, it’s time for us to “flip the script” on the trades that have worked for us over the past two years. Things have the potential to get wild. Fortunes made; retirements lost.

Let’s re-calibrate to make sure we own the stocks that will benefit most from the Trump 2.0 presidency.

Yes, I emphasized equities intentionally. Fifteen months ago, we contrarians started the bond bandwagon. It’s hard to believe now, but back then, the financial suits hated fixed income. We faded their fears, bought bonds and benefited.

Now, however, the fixed income trade is a bit tired.… Read more

Look, I know what a pain it can be to track your dividends.

ChatGPT? It’s no help. When I asked if it could give me a hand, its top suggestion was that I use a spreadsheet!

I mean, I guess the offer to help set up formulas is appreciated. But this is still a pain to set up—with AI assistance or not.

Sure, your brokerage account might have a built-in dividend tracker, but it’s almost certainly only useful for any investments you hold with that particular broker.

But what if you hold investments in more than one account, or with more than one brokerage (as many of us do)?… Read more

It’s a party on Wall Street! While the suits fawn over the hot “Trump trade” stocks, we dividend investors are going to dumpster dive.

Hey, we have no shame. We’re talking about yields from 7.8% to 13.4%, paid monthly!

Why the bargains? Bonds have been bloodied since the Federal Reserve cut rates.

Wait, what? Let’s remember the Fed guides short-term rates. Long-term rates , on the other hand, march to the beat of their own drum:

20- and 30-Year Treasuries Above 4.5% Again

We could dip into bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—they’ll have the same tailwind at their back. But I prefer CEFs over bland ETFs for three very simple reasons:

1. They yield more.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an “historic” 50 basis points. Then, interest rates soared.

Wait. What?

The Federal Funds Rate is a target (technically a target range) that influences short-term rates in the economy. Money market funds, for example, pay interest based on this benchmark. They pay 0.5% less today than two months ago due to the Fed cut.

Long-term rates, on the other hand, are not controlled by the Fed. Not directly, at least. The global bond market is a cool $130 trillion. Far too large for anyone, even Uncle Sam, to control.

Hence the recent fixed-income paradox.… Read more

I know things feel pretty tense right now. But don’t be pulled into the trap of thinking everything is up in the air these days.

Truth is, there are always rock-solid trends out there that no one can change. I’m talking about sure things that outlast presidencies, wars, inflation, deflation, you name it.

One of my faves: soaring food demand, which is tied straight into global population growth—hands-down the most “baked in” (sorry, I couldn’t resist!) trend there is.

According to the UN, there will be 9.7 billion people on the planet in 2050, nearly 2 billion more than now. That means we’re going to need a lot more food.… Read more

Election. Recession. No landing. Social unrest. Election contest.

Low beta, anyone?

Today we’ll talk calm in a sea of manic. A six-pack of tranquil dividend payers yielding up to 8.9%.

How do we know they’re tranquil? Beta, baby.

A stock with a beta above 1 is considered more volatile than “the market.”

A stock with a beta below 1 is considered less volatile.

Let’s say a stock had a beta of 0.5. This means it’s half as volatile as the market. If a 30% bear market swipes, this safety stock only loses 15%.

It’s an inexact science—I wouldn’t build projections per se around current beta.… Read more

Many investors are worried about a recession. Or The Federal Reserve easing too fast. Or not fast enough!

And then we have the upcoming election. Buckle up, my fellow contrarian.

Fair enough. But let’s remember that headline worries are usually priced in. The popular “threatdown” rarely thwarts the market.

On the other hand, we contrarians fret about the scenario that may come out of left field. We worry not about a hard landing. Or a soft landing. The underappreciated risk is the no landing that reignites inflation.

Rates down, assets up—let the good times roll! It will be fun for a while.… Read more

If you’re like me, when you see an outsized dividend yield, you stop for a second and immediately do the mental math. How much would we get back in payouts from, say, a 9.3% payer if we were to invest $10,000? Or $20,000? Or $100,000?

But savvy contrarians we are, we know to push back on this initial reaction and look deeper.

Because (as we contrarians know), those big yields can (and usually are) a danger sign.

Truth is, a rising dividend is only one possible reason for a high payout.

In fact, it’s the least likely one.

More often, a high yield stems from something we want no part of: a plunging share price.… Read more

If you’re as bullish on oil as I am, let’s look past vanilla bean favorites like Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX). Great companies but a bit pricey, as they only yield 3% to 4%.

We’re better off with diversified energy funds that dish dividends up to 9%. Now we’re talking!

The conditions are right for another push ahead in energy’s crash-‘n’-rally cycle. The Middle East (‘nuff said). The Federal Reserve careening towards a “no landing” scenario. And the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) joining the global money printing party.

It could be high time for Texas tea’s next leg higher.… Read more

“If you own dividend-paying stocks, you’d be a fool to not be using Income Calendar,” my man Mark P. from California writes.

Tell ‘em, Mark!

We are devoted to retiring on dividends here at Contrarian Outlook. But a little bit of work in retirement is OK. As income investors, we should be able to project our income.

Note that I said a little bit of work. Not a lot! I am not interested in fiddling with spreadsheets until the end of time, and neither is my man Mark.

If you’re with us, why not hop onboard the Income Calendar train with Mark and me?… Read more