Author Archive: Brett Owens

How about two bold election predictions—and two payouts that will thrive regardless of the results?

My first forecast: Americans will still want to eat food after November. Inflation is a hot topic on the campaign trail, but this is not a bad time to be hungry. Grain prices—corn, soybeans and what—are as cheap as they have been in years.

As contrarian investors, this commands our attention. Farmers are planting less corn, soybeans and wheat. The acreage is going to more profitable crops. Or, nothing at all.

Remember, the cure for low prices is low prices. Cheap grain squeezes farmers, who plant less.… Read more

If you’ve been watching utility stocks over the last few months, you might think our chance to buy these big dividends is history.

It’s not: There are two still sweet utility deals on the board, offering both high dividends (up to 7%) and steadily growing payouts. Why are these bargains still available? We’ll get to that shortly.

First, let’s talk about why utilities have been at the top of our buy list this year: When interest rates fall, “utes” fly.

Most people see utilities as bond proxies, which is why they got crushed when rates spiked in ’22. Why bother with even low-volatility utilities when you can get a guaranteed near-5% payout from a 2-Year Treasury?… Read more

In case you haven’t heard, the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. That is big news for this trio of dividend payers, dishing between 11.1% to 12.6% per year.

These stocks survived the high-rate cycle. Are they about to thrive as the Fed eases?

Yeah, probably—so long as the Fed doesn’t also put them out of business in the process! Let me explain…

Mortgage REITs (mREITs): High Risk, Even Higher Dividends

Mortgage real estate investment trusts, colloquially known as mREITs, are a real estate niche

When we think about REITs, we typically picture equity REITs. They own (and sometimes operate) physical real estate like apartments, strip malls, hospitals, ski resorts.… Read more

Over the past two Wednesdays we have discussed 10 timely high-yield stocks and funds. Talk may be cheap, but these income streams are generous.

Let’s talk dividend details using data from Income Calendar, the dividend tracker app we developed in-house here at Contrarian Outlook.

First, the projected income from these 10 payers. A $10,000 position in each tees us up for a $5,065.22 income stream over the next 12 months. A 5.07% average yield.

(Which, by the way, is over four times what the S&P 500 pays. Four times.) 

Our 12-Month Projected Income

Source: Income Calendar

Here’s the income contribution broken down by position.… Read more

I have to laugh when I hear people say Jay Powell has been tough on rates. Sure, he’s been talking tough. But when he’s not doing his Dirty Harry act at the mic, he’s been keeping the liquidity party going through the back door!

I call this “Quiet QE.” If you’ve read my articles in the last couple of years, or are a member of one of my premium services, you’ve no doubt heard me talk about it before.

It’s one-half of the opportunity we’re looking at in corporate bonds today.

The other? The arrival of what I call “real” QE, in the form of rate cuts slated to start up in September.… Read more

The haters are out in full force.

Wall Street “pros” are downright disgusted with high-yield stocks. Here at Contrarian Outlook, this pessimism warms our heart. With no analysts left to slap a Sell rating on these names, the future is filled with upgrades.

By the way: Consensus Buy calls are a dime a dozen. Analysts notoriously lean, ahem, optimistic, so there’s nothing special about a stock that’s dripping in positive ratings. But if a stock is stuffed with Sells, that’s rare, and I take notice.

How unusual are Sell calls? Just one S&P 500 stock is rated a consensus Sell right now.… Read more

Let’s talk about recession-resistant dividends because, if history is any guide, we are certainly “on the clock” for a slowdown if not already in one. Here at Contrarian Outlook we have been preparing for slower economic readings, and our recession divvies have already delivered.

Why the focus on slowdown safety? The Federal Reserve began hiking rates 2+ years ago. This is around the time something usually snaps in the financial markets. Sure enough, the Japanese yen of all things caused a VIX spike last seen in the 2008 and COVID crashes.

Our recession focus of late has been defense.… Read more

Don’t worry—we haven’t missed out on the bargains from the August 5 “flash crash.” We’ve still got a sweet setup for surging dividends in a sector most people completely misunderstand.

Misunderstood, unloved and soaring dividends? We’re interested!

I’m talking about refinery stocks. We’re going to zero in on two of my favorites today: Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy Corp. (VLO). As you’ll see below, I like one more than the other in the market in front of us now.

I say refiners are misunderstood because most investors confuse them with energy producers, who drill for oil and natural gas, then sell the raw products.… Read more

This stock hurts to short. The bears are gluttons for punishment.

Thirty-six percent (36%!) of outstanding shares are sold short. This dividend is just waiting to be squeezed higher.

Meanwhile, the pessimists are paying the stock’s 12.8% dividend out of pocket. That’s how shorting works—you must borrow shares to put on your bearish bet. As such, you’re on the hook for the dividend.

Wouldn’t be my bet. I’m talking, of course, about our controversial out-of-favor favorite Arbor Realty Trust (ABR). ABR is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT)—a REIT subset that typically doesn’t deal in physical properties, but instead owns “paper” real estate.… Read more

Well the “index huggers” hurled their positions quickly, didn’t they! Some bad jobs numbers. A rally in the Japanese yen. And it was sayonara, SPY.

The financial “squares” use blunt instruments. When they panic, they dump the only ETF they own. Turns out they were all short the Japanese yen heading into the weekend!

When the margin call came, they sold the only ticker they own: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).

I warned you about SPY three weeks ago, just before it crashed. My problem with SPY came down to three stocks, Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT), which made up 21% of the index—and still do!… Read more