Author Archive: Brett Owens

I think we can all agree that interest-rate cuts are on the table now. Even Jay Powell says so!

That rare “straight talk” from mystery-man Jay has fueled a jump in bonds. But there are still some bargain “bond proxies” on the table waiting to be snapped up.

To be sure, Jay is still being cagey about when the first cut will drop. But futures traders think they’re on to him: they’re calling for at least three quarter-point cuts by the end of this year, as of this writing:

Source: CME Group

We can argue about whether or not that’s too aggressive.… Read more

Bonds are back, baby. Let’s talk about three funds that pay—between 8.3% and 10.9%.

Plus, they are trading for less than the fair value of their parts. It’s free lunch time in Bondland.

Of course not all bond funds are created equal. ETFs serve their purpose, but closed-end funds (CEFs) are where the payout party is at. Value plus yield at the CEF café.

Most ETFs are tied to an index. Which means they are run by rules and robots. Boring.

CEFs tend to be actively managed, meaning “bond brains” are able to adjust their portfolio from defensive to offensive as the investing environment shifts.… Read more

“Daddy,” My nine-year-old started. I knew exactly what she was about to say.

“They said a lot of bad words.”

We were strolling out of Golden 1 Center. Our playoff-hopeful Sacramento Kings had just dropped another home game to a losing team. Our fellow fans were in foul moods.

Their postgame language was, shall we say, colorful. I thanked my daughter for her observation, and we continued our stroll away from the salty crowd. Best to get some distance before calling an Uber.

(A reformed dad like me couldn’t lecture our neighboring group with any real credibility. I mean, please don’t rewind my personal postgame tape to my time as a twenty-something.… Read more

AI stocks are booming—but they’re an absolute “dividend desert” for us contrarian income-seekers.

Or are they?

Most tech stocks—and I’d put AI darling NVIDIA (NVDA), with its pathetic 0.02% yield, at the top of the list here—don’t pay dividends when they’re growing quickly.

Only later, when growth slows, do they “find religion” and return cash to shareholders as dividends and buybacks. That’s too bad for those of us who like to have more than one way—price gains—to book returns on our stocks.

But what if we could find a way to grab more of our AI profits as dividends—particularly growing dividends—so we don’t have to “buy and hope” for price gains alone?… Read more

This is how wealthy people invest—and collect yields up to 12.5%.

Private equity (PE) is usually reserved for the rich. It’s the time-honored sport of milking cash from perfectly good businesses! Bleed ‘em dry and keep those dividends coming.

The minimum buy-in for most PE funds? From $500,000 to a cool million bucks or more. This lucrative pastime isn’t meant for the everyman.

Which grinds my gears, my dear friend. This is Contrarian Outlook, dedicated to dividends for said everyman. We have a loophole, and we’re going to share it today.

Business development companies (BDCs) are PE-esque companies. Many trade publicly and we can buy them just like regular stocks.… Read more

Last time we spoke about safe bond funds, I recommended an unconventional alternative: my mattress.

It was June 2022. Interest rates were rising, bond prices plummeting, and we contrarians were smartly sitting on sizeable cash positions.

Thoughtful reader William wrote in asking about using short-term bond funds as “cash equivalents.” After all, wouldn’t some yield be better than no yield?

No. Short-term bond funds were no match for my mattress, which does not trade inversely with interest rates. Bond prices and interest rates are an inverse seesaw—when rates rise, bond prices fall and when rates fall, bonds rise.

Plain ol’ cash outperformed the three safe bond funds we used as cautionary examples.… Read more

Look, this worry that inflation will stick around forever is ridiculously overblown. It’s only a matter of time before it settles out.

Heck, it’s already starting to happen: Last week’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) print for January—a fav of the Federal Reserve—tells the tale. The headline number came in at 2.8%, as expected. That’s still above the Fed’s 2% target.

But the core number of 2.4% (excluding more volatile categories like food and energy) was the lowest since February 2021.

We looked at one way to profit from overwrought fears last week: low-volatility dividend-payers like utilities and food makers. Many folks see these as “bond proxies.”… Read more

I think I’ve been asked every day this week from ordinary people if I’m trading NVIDIA (NVDA).

Be careful out there, my fellow contrarian!

A sharp pullback is possible. Something has to shake the froth out of this market. When that happens, investors will look for stocks that are high on income and low on volatility. Today we’ll highlight six paying up to 8.6%.

The secret is beta, a measure of an investment’s volatility against a benchmark. For instance, usually the S&P 500.

If a stock has a beta of 1, it means it’s every bit as volatile as “the market.”… Read more

Many investors say they buy low and sell high. But how many really do?

Let’s pick on the people buying NVIDIA (NVDA) at atmospheric levels. First, can they even spell NVIDIA? (Hint: Two “I”s).

Second, do they realize it sports a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 32? It is usually a really bad idea to pay 10+ times sales for a stock. Let alone thirty-two.

Note that I did not say earnings. I said sales. Revenues. The ol’ top line. Money before everything.

Scott McNealy, the co-founder of Sun Microsystems, famously told investors it was insane to pay 10-times sales for Sun’s stock.… Read more

You know what we’re gonna do about that hot January inflation print that dropped a couple weeks ago?

Ignore it.

Actually, we’re going to go one better and profit from it by grabbing stocks most folks see as “bond proxies”—solid companies whose stocks move up when rates come down.

But wait—isn’t that the opposite of what we should be doing when everyone is panicking that rates are going to stay high—and inflation is going to stick around?

Here’s the thing: Despite the noise, I don’t think that’s going to happen.

Truth be told, the panic we saw following the January CPI release looked like a mini version of last October’s freakout, when 10-year Treasury rates spiked to near 5% and worry was everywhere.… Read more