Author Archive: Brett Owens

I recently had dinner with a friend who’s a small business owner, and he swears by ChatGPT. The tool is saving him time, effort and (to be blunt) future employee hiring.

A lot of people think AI is imploding—hence the selloff in tech stocks we saw following last week’s softer-than-expected jobs report.

But the truth is, AI is simply moving past the initial excitement we see with every new technology. As AI embeds itself in the apps and devices we use every day, it’ll boost productivity, just like it’s doing for my friend.

As that happens, we’ll want to make sure you have some AI exposure in our portfolios, especially as ChatGPT replaces more expensive humans, a trend that’s already in motion, as we can see from last week’s jobs report.… Read more

The index huggers are, rightfully, fretting about the only position they own, the S&P 500, which is heavy on Nvidia (NVDA). The soon-to-be-fallen angel is the third largest component of the index at 6.3%.

“America’s ticker” SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) yields only 1.2% and trades for 22-times earnings. The S&P SmallCap 600, meanwhile, which nobody owns, trades for a more reasonable P/E of 16.

And select small caps even pay serious dividends. I’m talking about yields between 9.1% and 14.7%.

But are these value stocks? Or are they merely cheap for a reason? Let’s explore a group of five small caps paying big dividends.… Read more

Believe it or not, your favorite income strategist once had a multi-year stint as the head of human resources for a US-based software company.

It was, coincidentally, my last regular “day job” before I drifted into the world of stocks and startups.

When my old boss, our managing director, handed me the task of hiring our new employees, he gave me this piece of wisdom.

“I trust you to make the call. Just one thing…” he winked at me.

“The kids must be graduates from Berkeley, Cornell, MIT or Stanford.”

Gee, thanks boss. Like it was an easy task to convince a new graduate from an elite engineering school to skip the offer from Google to work with us.… Read more

We’ve all loved watching our dividend payers soar since the August 5 crash. (To be honest, we might have liked a bit more time to shop the bargains!).

But that’s investing. And I do have two pieces of good news on that front:

1. There are still some cheap—and growing—dividends on the table (we’ll name one below, as well as a “dividend dog” to dump right away if you own it).
2. This latest market bounce is broad based, as opposed to most of the last couple years, when tech was running the show: 

Good “Breadth” Bodes Well for More Gains

Here we can see the jump in the S&P 500 as a whole (in orange) versus its return on an equal-weight basis (in purple).… Read more

AI is in and energy is out. As usual. Which is just dandy for contrarian dividend investors like us.

Let’s talk about dividends up to 6.6% and stock prices that are dirt cheap. How cheap? Stocks trading for as little as half their sales!

The best time to buy energy is before the next supply shortage. I was just “upwind” of Hurricane Hone on the Big Island of Hawaii—‘tis the season for storms. Plus we have a volatile Middle East. And an economy that may get a bit of juice as the Federal Reserve begins to ease.

The 2020s, make no mistake, are a bullish decade for energy.… Read more

How about two bold election predictions—and two payouts that will thrive regardless of the results?

My first forecast: Americans will still want to eat food after November. Inflation is a hot topic on the campaign trail, but this is not a bad time to be hungry. Grain prices—corn, soybeans and what—are as cheap as they have been in years.

As contrarian investors, this commands our attention. Farmers are planting less corn, soybeans and wheat. The acreage is going to more profitable crops. Or, nothing at all.

Remember, the cure for low prices is low prices. Cheap grain squeezes farmers, who plant less.… Read more

If you’ve been watching utility stocks over the last few months, you might think our chance to buy these big dividends is history.

It’s not: There are two still sweet utility deals on the board, offering both high dividends (up to 7%) and steadily growing payouts. Why are these bargains still available? We’ll get to that shortly.

First, let’s talk about why utilities have been at the top of our buy list this year: When interest rates fall, “utes” fly.

Most people see utilities as bond proxies, which is why they got crushed when rates spiked in ’22. Why bother with even low-volatility utilities when you can get a guaranteed near-5% payout from a 2-Year Treasury?… Read more

In case you haven’t heard, the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates. That is big news for this trio of dividend payers, dishing between 11.1% to 12.6% per year.

These stocks survived the high-rate cycle. Are they about to thrive as the Fed eases?

Yeah, probably—so long as the Fed doesn’t also put them out of business in the process! Let me explain…

Mortgage REITs (mREITs): High Risk, Even Higher Dividends

Mortgage real estate investment trusts, colloquially known as mREITs, are a real estate niche

When we think about REITs, we typically picture equity REITs. They own (and sometimes operate) physical real estate like apartments, strip malls, hospitals, ski resorts.… Read more

Over the past two Wednesdays we have discussed 10 timely high-yield stocks and funds. Talk may be cheap, but these income streams are generous.

Let’s talk dividend details using data from Income Calendar, the dividend tracker app we developed in-house here at Contrarian Outlook.

First, the projected income from these 10 payers. A $10,000 position in each tees us up for a $5,065.22 income stream over the next 12 months. A 5.07% average yield.

(Which, by the way, is over four times what the S&P 500 pays. Four times.) 

Our 12-Month Projected Income

Source: Income Calendar

Here’s the income contribution broken down by position.… Read more

I have to laugh when I hear people say Jay Powell has been tough on rates. Sure, he’s been talking tough. But when he’s not doing his Dirty Harry act at the mic, he’s been keeping the liquidity party going through the back door!

I call this “Quiet QE.” If you’ve read my articles in the last couple of years, or are a member of one of my premium services, you’ve no doubt heard me talk about it before.

It’s one-half of the opportunity we’re looking at in corporate bonds today.

The other? The arrival of what I call “real” QE, in the form of rate cuts slated to start up in September.… Read more