Author Archive: Brett Owens

Chief Investment Strategist

Why Wall Street Hates This 12.8% Yield … And Why They’re Wrong

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: August 9, 2024

This stock hurts to short. The bears are gluttons for punishment.

Thirty-six percent (36%!) of outstanding shares are sold short. This dividend is just waiting to be squeezed higher.

Meanwhile, the pessimists are paying the stock’s 12.8% dividend out of pocket. That’s how shorting works—you must borrow shares to put on your bearish bet. As such, you’re on the hook for the dividend.

Wouldn’t be my bet. I’m talking, of course, about our controversial out-of-favor favorite Arbor Realty Trust (ABR). ABR is a mortgage real estate investment trust (mREIT)—a REIT subset that typically doesn’t deal in physical properties, but instead owns “paper” real estate.… Read more

Sayonara, SPY. And Hello, Recession-Resistant Monthly Divvies.

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: August 7, 2024

Well the “index huggers” hurled their positions quickly, didn’t they! Some bad jobs numbers. A rally in the Japanese yen. And it was sayonara, SPY.

The financial “squares” use blunt instruments. When they panic, they dump the only ETF they own. Turns out they were all short the Japanese yen heading into the weekend!

When the margin call came, they sold the only ticker they own: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).

I warned you about SPY three weeks ago, just before it crashed. My problem with SPY came down to three stocks, Apple (AAPL)Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT), which made up 21% of the index—and still do!Read more

These 7%+ Dividends Are Your Best Play as Rates Get Slashed

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: August 6, 2024

Look, rate cuts are only weeks away now—likely starting in September. And there’s one terrific way to tap them: high-yielding municipal bonds!

I know most folks think “munis”—issued by state and local governments to fund infrastructure projects—are boring.

It is, frankly, a ridiculous opinion. Tell me what’s “boring” about an investment that kicks out a 7.7% tax-free dividend!

To be sure, there are a couple quibbles you might have with munis.

For one, they’re tough to buy individually. But that’s really not a problem: ETFs offer one way in, but a much better way—and the only road to 7.7%+ dividends—is through closed-end funds (CEFs) like the three we’ll break down in just a second.… Read more

This 5-Stock Portfolio Pays Up to 7.3%, is Built for Disaster

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: August 2, 2024

Worried about a serious pullback in the S&P 500?

That something is going to go a bit haywire here in America, or overseas, and send stocks swooning?

If so, this 5-stock portfolio is for you. It yields up to 7.3% and it is built to withstand Armageddon.

No, really. These “low beta” payers can really lower our blood pressure. (Hold my beetroot juice!)

We blunt the bears with big dividends and small betas. Beta is a measure of an investment’s volatility against a benchmark.

If a stock has a beta of 1, it means it’s every bit as volatile as “the market.”… Read more

The First Postmortem on Google, and CEFs Paying Up to 9.5% to Avoid

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 31, 2024

Google is in trouble. The stock market is beginning to sniff that out.

As an income investor, you may think that you don’t care. But you probably should. We all need to take note, because Alphabet (GOOGL) shares are everywhere.

Let’s make sure that Google’s rotting core product—and business model—don’t stink up our perfectly good retirement portfolio. In a moment, I’ll name-check specific ETFs and CEFs (closed-end funds) to avoid.

First, let me give the world’s first postmortem on Google. It was a heck of a run for a technology product, more than 20 years as the “go to” search engine.… Read more

This “Lonely, Uncomfortable” Stock Move Delivers Big Gains

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 30, 2024

Here’s one thing most folks get wrong about dividend cuts: They can (and often do) set up terrific buying opportunities!

I know, I know. Before our customer-service inbox lights up here at Contrarian Outlook, let me be clear that we dividend investors hate payout cuts. No one wants to see their income stream and their investment take a hit, as scorned investors toss the stock.

But buying a dividend after a cut (or even before, under the right conditions) can be a winning move. It’s a setup that reminds me of the words of Howard Marks, the most successful investor no one has ever heard of (except Warren Buffett, who is a fan).… Read more

60 Dividend Payouts Per Year with This 5-Click Group, Yields Up to 8.6%

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 26, 2024

Let’s talk about monthly dividend payers today because, well, why waste our valuable time with stocks that only pay quarterly?

I selected five for our review. We’re talking sixty dividend payments per year from this group. The most generous stock dishes an elite 8.6% annually. (The “laggard” yields a respectable 6.5%.)

Why don’t more companies pay monthly? The answer is predictable and disappointing.

Wall Street runs on a quarterly system. US-listed companies are required by the SEC to provide quarterly financial updates. So, most management teams pay their dividends quarterly as part of this process.

Hence, we salute the suits in shining armor who make the extra effort to pay us every single month.… Read more

Yields 14.4%, Sure, But It’s Comically Overpriced

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 25, 2024

Who is paying a 27% premium for Guggenheim Strategic Opportunity Fund (GOF)?

Don’t get me wrong. GOF is a fine fund, delivering 9.8% yearly returns on its net asset value (NAV) since inception. But we are talking nosebleed valuation territory for GOF. It’s a dangerous purchase at these levels.

Bandwagoners buying today are unlikely to see 9.8% returns. Or anything close. Plus, they are exposing themselves to 27% downside risk because, as we’ll discuss in a minute, GOF eventually finds its way back to par.

How can a premium like this exist? GOF is a closed-end fund (CEF) with a fixed pool of shares.… Read more

This Growing 7.4% Dividend Is on a “Summer Sale.” It Won’t Last

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 23, 2024

There’s a clear pattern natural gas prices repeat time and time again. We’re going to pounce on it now—and grab ourselves a growing 7.4% payout as we do.

I’m talking about the “natty’s” $2 price floor. Every time it drops to that level (or below) it takes off. Check it out:

Natural Gas’s $2 “Trampoline Act”

It just goes to prove that the cure for low prices is low prices! To play this pattern, we want to buy after gas bottoms. Now is that time.

Think about it: We’re moving toward winter in North America (where temps are expected to be below those of last year’s “non-winter”).… Read more

5 “Inaugural Dividends” Paying Up to 10%

Brett Owens, Chief Investment Strategist
Updated: July 19, 2024

Which dividend is most likely to be hiked?

Usually, the brand-new payout.

Chief Financial Officers are a conservative bunch. A CFO will only agree to pay a dividend if they know they can:

  1. Make the payment comfortably.
  2. Hike the dividend repeatedly for years to come—with said comfort.

The hike part is important because rising dividends drive stock gains. I’m talking about hundreds or even thousands of percentage points in potential gains.

Let’s consider Apple (AAPL) and its inaugural dividend moment. In March 2012, the tech giant initiated a regular dividend of $2.65 per share. The payout was a catalyst for 12 subsequent years of moonshot performance.… Read more