Author Archive: Brett Owens

The UK trade deal was apparently the tasty egg roll before the main course of lower Chinese tariffs. A delightful order for this dividend grower, ready to feast on the “Peking duck” of trade agreements.

China is one of the biggest buyers of US crops, importing tens of billions of dollars of American agriculture every year. Soybeans and corn meander from Midwest farms all the way across the Pacific to feed China’s large (and growing) livestock industry. Higher US-China tariffs have weighed on US farmers’ profitability—and in turn, on business for key ag suppliers like Corteva Agriscience (CTVA).

So the “trade truce” with China (announced Monday) is quite bullish for Corteva.… Read more

Are we careening towards a recession, or is a pickup in inflation the big threat to the stock market?

The negative first quarter GDP print has recession fears in the financial headlines. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jay Powell remains fixated on inflation.

Ironically, both may come to pass. Which means we must prepare our portfolios for a slowdown that is quickly followed by a pickup in prices.

Let’s put one smart lender on our “Goldilocks” watch list. This ticker yields 10% today (with some nice “dividend insurance” we’ll talk about in a moment). But the key point is that it profits as inflation—and interest rates—tick higher.… Read more

While vanilla income investors limit their search to mere “common” dividends, we contrarians know where the real payout party is at—with preferred divvies.

Let’s talk about three preferred-stock vehicles that pay from 6.9% to 9.4%. All three of these funds dish monthly dividends.

And these payouts receive preferential treatment over common-stock dividends, making them safer than the common payouts offered by regular ol’ equities.

There are four main ways to buy preferreds, and three of them have some serious headaches and drawbacks:

1. Individual preferred stocks: Research resources for individual preferred shares are few, far between and often require expensive paid subscriptions.

Vanilla investors fixate on price. We contrarians know better.

It’s all about the NAV. Net asset value, baby.

Price is what people pay at a given moment. But people panic. Many like to buy high—and sell low!

NAV, on the other hand, is what something is worth at that same moment. Price and NAV can become disconnected, especially during emotional market moments. When this happens, it is often a buying opportunity for careful contrarians like us.

Let’s take a pop quiz. Think about the funds you hold in your portfolio. What was your top performing NAV for the month of April?… Read more

It’s no secret this economy is slowing—at least in the near term. That’s given us contrarians a (time-limited!) buy window on the “dividend twofer” we’re going to dive into today.

One of the tickers we’ll talk about below pays a sturdy 7% now. The other yields 4.9% and sports a source of upside no one has noticed (except us, of course!).

Both are utility plays, which tend to rise as the economy slows, lowering interest rates as it does. Let’s get into this opportunity, starting with last week’s GDP report, which said, yes, the US economy did shrink to start the year.… Read more

Dividends over drama, please. Like these five steady stocks that yield 7.2%, on average.

Back in school they taught us that to increase returns, investors had to take on additional risk. This was a financial engineering class at Cornell University, by the way. The prof should have known better, but he didn’t, because he was a researcher and not an actual investor.

It’s a common mistake in academia, and those who try to invest “buy the book.” The book says more beta means more returns. Well, this text is often wrong!

Big dividends and low volatility are a beautiful combination.

Volatility can be measured several ways.… Read more

If the April lows hold, the S&P 500 will clock a 19% peak to trough drop on the tariff news. The drawdown could have been worse—if the bond market had not broken!

President Trump was initially resolute in the face of a declining stock market. Wall Street was desperately, unsuccessfully searching for a “Trump Put”—a save from the decline by the White House. Trump, however, likened the levies to a necessary remedy:

“Sometimes you have to take medicine.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, must have silenced his phone for a few weeks while his old Wall Street contacts texted and texted (and called) and texted.… Read more

So far in this trade war, there is one “winner” left on the board: gold. The barbarous relic has glittered amidst the financial carnage.

And while everyone is climbing aboard now, we contrarians see a better buy window ahead. Below, we’ll “dig into” 4 tickers to get ready, ranked from worst to first (hint: our top play has a dividend that soars with gold prices).

Before we get to that, though, let’s look at what’s really going on here—starting with Treasuries. Yields on the 10-year spiked from sub-4% to 4.5% in a matter of days at the height of the trade war tantrum.… Read more

Let’s talk about consumer staples dividends today. If we’re heading for a slowdown then we need to be picky about our payouts. When the economy slows, discretionary spending is often punted but staples continue to be bought.

Today we’ll discuss five dividends between 4.2% and 10.7%. These “must have” products can provide our portfolios with important recession-resistant qualities.

Year-to-date staples have been flat and, in this market, that is great. Their sideways action has lapped the over-owned S&P 500 this year:

Consumer Staples: Doing Exactly What We Expect Them to Do

Consumer staples stocks tend to have more stable operations that result in more stable share performance in turbulent markets.… Read more

For the past 16 years, the world has piled into a “long US” trade. American stocks, bought with dollars, have propped up investment portfolios around the globe since the Great Financial Crisis.

From March 2009 to early 2025, the S&P 500 soared by 600%—that’s seven times! Why would anyone own anything else when SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was sizzling?

But bulls don’t run forever. Last summer, we contrarians discussed a potential inflection point for SPY—the likelihood that the index’s best gains were behind it.

And here we are.

A global trade war has triggered a flight from SPY.… Read more