Author Archive: Brett Owens

Hey kid, want some candy?

Don’t worry about the wrapper. It, um, came like that.

No? No candy for you? You’re sure?

OK fine. Maybe you’re not hungry, but how about this 31% dividend?

Don’t worry. The stock made its last dividend payment of $0.27 just fine.

No? No 31% yield for you? You’re sure?

OK fine. And, honestly, smart move. I would imagine that January dividend payment is the last one we ever see from First Republic Bank (FRC).

Fundamentally, FRC (and other banks, for this matter) are flawed, perhaps fatally so. They are not paying competitive rates.… Read more

We’ve got a once-in-5-year buy window open to us in one of the highest-yielding investments out there.

And (for once) we can thank the Fed for these cheap 8%+ payouts!

I’m talking about closed-end funds (CEFs), a corner of the market where rich 8%+ yields (and monthly payouts) are the norm.

These (too) often-ignored funds are set to spike because the last time Powell & Co. acted like they are now, CEFs’ prices soared—and they handed their lucky investors big price gains to go along with their huge dividends.

If 2023 Is 2019 Redux, CEFs Will Explode Higher

To see what I’m getting at here, think back to late 2018.… Read more

Select bank stocks may be cheap, but why settle for 2% to 3% yields?

Let’s really bang on the bargain bin and for dividends between 8.3% and 9.4%. These yields are available thanks to the current banking fears.

Fortunately, these payouts are more secure than vanilla investors appreciate. Hence, the dividend deal.

A Better Way to Play Banks

I wrote a few weeks ago about how mainstream investors are trying to time a bottom in banks.

Fair enough. Banks are extremely cheap right now by a well-known measure of long-term value: CAPE (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings), which is the price divided not by the past year of earnings, but the past 10 years.… Read more

We’re heading towards the most telegraphed recession of all time. At least in recent memory.

So should we sell everything? Not exactly. Granted, recessions are usually bad for stocks. Vanilla investors who own nothing-but-ETFs are in a tough spot.

But since you’re reading this, I assume:

1. You pick stocks better than a robotic ETF.
2. You’re not scared of a stinkin’ recession. You’re here looking for high-yield exceptions to the “sell everything” rule.

I appreciate that about you, my fellow contrarian. If I thought rules applied to me, I would have made it past age 26 in Corporate America! This is why we get along so well.… Read more

I’m not going to lie to you: this market is headed for a fall. And if you’re caught holding the wrong dividend payers, you could be in for some serious losses indeed.

How serious? Well, the worst of the four stocks we’re going to delve into below—Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL)—plunged 26% last year, much further than the S&P 500. If you hold this one, or the other dangerous dividend we’ll discuss below, it’s time to cut your losses and get out now.

Cracker Barrel Plunged in ’22—a Sign of Things to Come?

But we’re not only going to sell today—we’re going on offense, too.… Read more

Private equity (PE) is a rich guy and gal favorite. PE firms find deals and deliver outsized dividends.

They don’t like dealing with common folk. So, PE shops typically set a minimum of a few hundred thousand dollars or so to invest.

But we contrarians have a better way! By tapping BDCs—or business development companies—we can toss as little as $20 into a PE payer.

Better yet, we can secure yields between 8.5% and 13.1%. We’ll discuss three examples today. Including one that is trading below book value!

If you’ve never heard of business development companies (BDCs), you’re not alone. There are only a few dozen publicly traded BDCs, and even the largest one would be a minnow in the S&P 500.… Read more

Worried about a recession? Two thoughts:

1. I don’t blame you.
2. Consider this recession-resistant REIT (real estate investment trust), poised to rally on an economic slump.

Why rally? Well, interest rates and REITs tend to seesaw. When rates rise, REITs fall. At least that’s the conventional wisdom.

In recessions, interest rates fall. Normally bullish for REITs—consider them a  “second-level” bet on a bond bounce.

REITs, after all, are the bond proxies of the stock world. Investors buy them for their yields. That’s why we like them here at Contrarian Outlook.

It’s part of the REIT special sauce. As long as they dish most of their profits (90%+) as dividends, they pay no corporate taxes.… Read more

There are plenty of stocks out there, right now, with payouts growing fast—heck, some of them give shareholders a “raise” every three months.

You won’t find these “Dividend Accelerators” among the big names of the Dow.

Many are real estate investment trusts (REITs)—“landlords” of everything from apartments to warehouses. And they’re not just dividend-growth machines; most throw off higher current yields than the typical S&P stock, too.

And I mean much higher: right now, the REIT benchmark Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) yields 4.1%. The typical S&P 500 name? A sorry 1.6%.

You can thank the Feds for that: they give REITs a pass on corporate taxes as long as they pay 90% of their income as dividends.… Read more

We contrarians, we’re not ashamed to admit, make our big money dumpster diving for discarded dividends.

When vanilla investors toss trash, it is often our treasure!

I have a hunch this is unfolding in the natural gas market. Prices literally can’t go much lower, which means that eventually they must go higher. Check out this chart—prices are down by 80% in one year!

Nat Gas is Dirt Cheap 

“Natty” prices have fallen from roughly $9 per million British thermal units (MMBtus) to a little more than $2, flattened by unseasonably warm weather and months of dogged supply surplus. Reuters reported in February that “depletion so far this heating season has been around half the seasonal average for the last 10 years.”… Read more

As we head towards the most telegraphed recession in recent memory, US Treasuries are receiving a lot of attention. And rightfully so.

In recessions, interest rates go down. This boosts bond prices (which trade opposite rates).

But not all bonds are created equal—especially during recessions. Slowdowns tend to make the safest bonds the most attractive.

After all, it can be a slippery slope from slowdown to meltdown, so many investors prefer the safety of Treasuries. In 2008, for example, the S&P 500 sank 38% but US Treasuries rallied sharply. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) delivered a 28% gain for the year:

In 2008, T-Bonds Did Great 

I don’t think we’re in for a repeat of ’08, but this “buy Treasuries before a recession” trade has worked superbly since we called it in November.… Read more