Author Archive: Brett Owens

A reader recently wrote in to ask:

Brett, if you could only invest in one ticker over the next year, what would it be?

I’d buy a stock backed by three financial trends that are likely to gain more attention in the months ahead. Definitely the type of firm that is due to dominate the “narrative” in 2021.

Don’t worry, this won’t simply be a story stock. Because it’s me, we’re also requiring value and, most importantly, yield with our storytelling.

So let’s start spinning the yarn. We’ll begin with Fed Chair Jay Powell and his prolific printing machine.

2021 Narrative #1: Money Printing

Powell has put on quite the show of late.… Read more

2020 is finally in the books, and many REITs (real estate investment trusts) remain in the bargain bin. Is it time to buy these generous dividend payers and bet on a 2021 rebound?

Savvy contrarians that we are, we’re focusing on REITs because they are the one part of the market that was left behind as everyone rushed back into stocks in the back half of 2020.

Normally, REITs more or less track the blue-chip index, but when COVID-19 crushed these landlords’ tenants, that changed in a big way: investors sold REITs—and they’re still on the mat.

REITs Fall Behind

That orange line is the price return of the benchmark Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ), which yields 4% today—a massive payout in today’s zero-point-nothing interest-rate world.… Read more

If you’re not yet as filthy rich as you hoped you’d be by now, don’t worry—we still have plenty of time to get you there.

And I’m not talking about investing your “growth capital” into risky fly-by-night names in hopes of buying high and selling higher. We can scale our money more securely—and just as spectacularly—by purchasing sound dividend payers that happen to be growing their payouts rapidly. Here’s why.

There are three—and only three—ways a company’s stock can pay us:

1. A cash dividend.
2. A dividend hike.
3. By repurchasing its own shares.

Everyone loves the dividend, but investors usually don’t give enough love to the dividend hike.… Read more

Can we income seekers safely get back into REITs (real estate investment trusts) next year?

With the yield on the S&P 500 about to drop to a sad 1.5% (thanks, Tesla (TSLA) addition), renewed REIT-hope sure would be nice! The landlord industry index Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) pays 3.5%. That’s a dividend oasis in this zero-point-nothing world.

Once upon a time, VNQ performed in-line or better than the blue-chip index. It was a pretty good deal, as you could double your dividend and keep up with the Joneses’ portfolio with less heartburn.

Then, April 2020 came along, tenants stopped paying rents, and REITs-at-large got crushed:

A Good REIT Run While It Lasted

Does the fork-in-the-road above represent a paradigm shift or relative value?… Read more

If you’re making buy decisions based on the daily gyrations of the S&P 500, you’re setting yourself up for big losses—and costing yourself a shot at big dividends, too.

Why? For starters, at a 1.6% average yield, the popular names simply don’t pay enough. You’d need to save $2.5 million just to generate $40,000 in yearly dividends!

We need a better option—one that lets us save a reasonable amount of money (I’m talking $500,000 to $600,000 here) and still generate meaningful income.

I’ll give you two of my best contrarian strategies for doing that in a moment. First, let me show you why it pays to be patient right now, even though many folks are rushing to buy stocks, with the S&P 500 up 14% as I write this.… Read more

Exactly who is retiring on the income from safe bonds in 2021?

You might remember when, once upon a time, the 10-year Treasury was a source of acceptable retirement yield:

• Thirty years ago, we could get 7% or more for sitting on high-quality U.S. debt,
• Twenty years ago, we could still gather 6%,
• Even a decade ago, we were pocketing a respectable 4%.

Today? We can’t even collect a lousy 1% yield!

Buying Treasury Bonds? Congrats—You’re Broke!

Put a million bucks into 10-year Treasuries and we’re banking just $9,500 per year in income. That’s below poverty levels. Yikes.

Things aren’t any better on the stock side.… Read more

When this closed-end fund (CEF) lowered its monthly dividend for the first time in 17 years, many income investors (understandably) panicked and sold.

Too bad for them. They missed out on 27% returns over the next 20 months.

Can a dividend cut actually be a good thing? Like life itself, it’s complicated—but my short answer is “yes.” Here’s when (and why).

CEFs are the exception to the “dividend cuts are bad” rule. In CEF-Land, payouts are taken from a fund’s portfolio, which is represented by a fund’s net asset value (NAV). Sure, the funds that we buy generally have income streams that are supposed to “power” NAV higher.… Read more

What are we dividend investors to expect in 2021? Let’s look to Washington, DC, where the switch on Jay Powell’s printing press is stuck in “high”:

Money Supply Surges—With No End in Sight

With Powell’s fiat money keeping (what’s left of) the Main Street economy afloat, you can bet that his “instant” cash will keep rolling in. He’ll have a willing partner in incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who followed the same strategy when she was Fed chair:

New Boss Same as the Old Boss

This is a recipe for inflation once the economy gets back on its feet. Back in September, we discussed some stocks that make solid inflation hedges by hiking their dividends faster than prices (and inevitably, interest rates) rise.… Read more

Here at Contrarian Outlook, our beat is income, and we’re often asked for analysis on high-yield ETFs. Today, we’ll look at three funds paying up to 11% (yes, that’s no typo).

I appreciate the ETF popularity. They’re cheap. They’re tax-efficient. They’re  well-marketed. They’ve got cutesy tickers.

But income investors who blindly buy into the hype, unfortunately, are not getting the most dividend for their dollar.

The real dividend deals are found in ETFs’ lesser-known cousins, closed-end funds (CEFs), which often dish even bigger payouts (and a monthly cadence, to boot). CEFs can also trade at discounts to their net asset values, because they fly under Wall Street’s radar.… Read more

Thank you to our 1,581 Contrarian Income Report subscribers who attended our webcast last week! My publisher described it as a “firehose of information”—hopefully, that was a good thing!

We have you, our thoughtful reader and income investor, to thank for the inspiration behind the firehose. We fielded 45 questions before the event and another 127 on the call, for a total of 172. Amazing.

As promised, I have read each and every question (as has our excellent customer service team). In the weeks ahead, we’ll discuss as many as I can find white space for. Let’s start with six today.… Read more