Author Archive: Jeff Reeves

It’s a new year, and that means a lot of suggestions for new approaches to investing.

But here at Contrarian Outlook, we’re not interested in change as the illusion of progress. We’re only interested in one thing – long-term investments that allow us to retire worry-free!

So don’t worry, friends… no gimmicks for you today! Just another case-study in our proven investing strategy.

As I have outlined in previous analysis, my go-to income investments are what I like to call “MVP” stocks. Those are companies that have strong Management, an attractive current Valuation for shares, and generous and sustainable Payouts to provide reliable income.… Read more

After 2022, some dividend investors remain convinced that slow and steady is the way to go to prevent further damage to their portfolio. In fact, some folks are actively moving out of the stock market entirely, and into bonds for low-risk income.

That’s just plain crazy!

Sure, the 10-year T-Note is yielding about double what it was a few months ago. But that’s still just 3.5% as of this writing. That means if you have a $1 million portfolio, you’re generating a meager $35,000 a year. Maybe you can pay your grocery and power bills with that, but it’s hardly the generous retirement you deserve.… Read more

There’s no denying that 2022 was the year of energy. A look at the top 10 performers in the S&P 500 index proves that plain as day.

They are, in descending order:

1. Occidental Petroleum (OXY) – 119%
2. Hess (HES) – 94%
3. ExxonMobil (XOM) – 87%
4. Marathon Petroleum (MPC) – 87%
5. Schlumberger (SLB) – 81%
6. APA Corporation (APA) – 76%
7. Valero Energy (VLO) – 75%
8. Halliburton (HAL) – 75%
9. FirstSolar (FSLR) – 72%
10. ConocoPhillips (COP) – 72%

Clearly energy was on the top of the heap over the last 12 months…

… But as the old saying goes, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.… Read more

There’s no doubt that 2022 was the year of energy, as the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused supply shocks that sent oil and gas prices soaring. But with inflation data more muted and most of the disruptions now long priced-in as we enter a New Year, it may be time to start getting much more selective about the energy sector.

That’s particularly true if you’re an income-oriented investor in it for the long haul. Cyclical sectors like energy can see big swings and high volatility, both for the share prices of companies in the sector as well as for their dividends.… Read more

When it comes to low-risk, dividend investing, many investors prefer dominant megacaps like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT). That’s mostly because they subscribe to the notion that these stable corporations will be here many years from now.

That may be true. However, stability alone doesn’t count for much. A good dividend stock has to have… well, good dividends.

And the sad reality is this trio of big-name stocks offers a meager dividend that averages less than 1.5%.

That’s just table scraps. Just consider that recent survey results show that Americans on average think they need $1.25 million to retire comfortably… But even with that substantial nest egg, you would generate just $18,750 if you invested in these three stocks.… Read more

One of the messiest stories on Wall Street this year is the Walt Disney Co. (DIS). And considering the problems elsewhere on Wall Street, that’s saying something!

Disney suspended its dividend a little more than a year ago. Then, more recently, it ousted its CEO Bob Chapek in November. The surprise move came just months after the beleaguered CEO had hired outside consulting firm McKinsey to try and slash spending and restructure operations, a sure sign that company was adrift. The stock has been in a tailspin all year as a result, and is currently down almost 40% since January 1.… Read more

I visited Florida a few months back, and witnessed a rather hilarious scene — a gaggle of teenagers, stamping out of the water as they shrieked about sharks in the water.

It was hilarious, of course, because there weren’t any sharks. What had terrified them was actually just a curious manatee.

It’s easy to understand why those kids freaked out. Sharks are terrifying to most people. The group spotted a dark shape in the surf and instantly panicked rather than take their chances.

But guess what: Swimmers very rarely encounter sharks. In a typical year, there are only about 10 humans killed by sharks… and about 100 run-ins with sharks in total.… Read more

Income investors can, in many ways, be even harsher critics than growth investors.

That’s because while some traders can delude themselves into believing the fancy growth stories of biotech or software startups … for “risk off” investors interested in dividends, the numbers matter.

And when a company isn’t measuring up, it shows.

There’s no greater proof of that than tools company Stanley Black & Decker (SWK). The stock has stumbled dramatically over the last year as supply chain pressures brought about the pandemic were compounded by rising raw material costs.

Thanks to weak margins and flat revenue, the stock is down a gut-wrenching 56% or so year-to-date.… Read more

Every Thanksgiving, I get together with my in-laws. They’re nice enough people … but if I’m being honest, some of them aren’t particularly interesting.

Conversations are invariably limited to just two or three topics. In fact, some people just have two or three particular stories they trot out.

I just sit there and nurse my second or third glass of wine, and try to look interested.

The stock market is kind of like that in 2022. There simply aren’t a lot of things to say about the stock market – rising rates and inflation have gutted Big Tech and other growth-oriented names, while commodity stocks and defensive plays reign supreme.… Read more

If you’re serious about investing, you have to develop a head for math. Hard numbers not only keep you grounded, but sometimes offer the only way to make sense of the weird ways that Wall Street works.

Consider that odd fact I shared recently about how a 50% loss followed by a 50% gain actually leaves you 25% in the hole. Strange, but true!

And here’s another fun fact: In a room of just 23 people there’s a 50/50 chance that two people share the same birthday. In a room of 40 people, the chance is more than 90%… And at 55, the chance is 99%.… Read more