Author Archive: Michael Foster

There’s one investment you simply must not hold in this market crash—a highly speculative, high-yielding instrument called an exchange traded note (ETN).

Does the name sound familiar? That’s probably because it sounds like “exchange-traded fund,” or ETF. But an ETN isn’t like an ETF at all—and that’s a distinction many people fail to make.

So what’s an ETN, then?

It’s a highly leveraged, speculative instrument that lets investors access particular asset classes. In good times, ETNs can skyrocket. These, however are, er, more interesting times.

ETNs: Guaranteed Losses in the Coronavirus Crisis

As a result of the coronavirus selloff, ETNs aren’t just going to rack up big losses—they’re going to go to zero.… Read more

Markets have freaked out over the coronavirus—but there’s good reason to believe they have overreacted—I gave you a few of these reasons in my March 19 article.

There’s another reason we need to talk about today: corporate earnings.

While it’s true that earnings expectations have fallen since the outbreak began, they haven’t fallen as much as you’d think. At the start of the quarter, analysts expected 4.4% earnings growth from S&P 500 companies. Now they’re expecting a 0.1% earnings decline.

That’s basically flat, and it’s better than the earnings declines we saw at the start of 2019, when stocks were rallying, so this news shouldn’t scare investors away.… Read more

To be sure, no one expected stocks to notch big double-digit losses in just two weeks, and while I don’t know when a rebound will happen (anyone who claims they do is lying), the economic numbers do carry a ray of light.

So let’s dive into them, and talk a little bit about the 18 funds in our CEF Insider portfolio, too.

Of Lizards and Dividends

First, there’s one thing we must not do at a time like this: follow our “lizard brain”: the primeval part of our thought process that tells us to flee when danger rears up, to keep our precious capital safe.… Read more

Let’s set aside the noise and talk about the one thing that matters most in a volatile market like this: earnings.

According to recent FactSet data, analysts expect negative earnings growth in the first quarter of 2020. That’s no surprise, given the battering the coronavirus is laying on some sectors of the economy.

But even so, the projected decline as I write was still reasonable: just 0.1%. Things can still change, of course, but it’s important to note that this modest decline comes after a fourth quarter in which earnings grew following three straight quarters of declines—and despite analyst expectations of a 1.7% drop.… Read more

Last Thursday, we took a close look at how closed-end funds (CEFs) holding municipal bonds—issued by states and cities to fund infrastructure projects—can help stabilize your portfolio in times like these.

Today we’re going to dig deeper and put some numbers behind how these CEFs can do even more, including handing you a dividend that’s double what you’d get on stocks—and these payouts are tax-free, to boot!

First, here’s what “munis” did during the selloff in the last week of February:

Muni Bonds Hold the Line—Literally

When stocks plummeted, munis were fine. And why wouldn’t they be? As senior government debts, municipal bonds have strict regulations and restrictions that make them less risky than stocks.… Read more

When the market is selling off, it’s easy to panic as big losses rack up in your account.

Here’s the thing, though: going to cash, and fully exposing yourself to inflation, is a guaranteed way to lose. It’s doubly sad to see first-level investors doing this when there’s a time-tested way to survive meltdowns, keep your income stream intact and cut your portfolio’s volatility.

It doesn’t involve panic selling. Instead, it revolves around three simple rules: diversify, be patient and keep a big income stream. Let’s walk through each of these.

1. Diversify

The first key to surviving a meltdown is to be in several markets at once.… Read more

Let’s be honest: it’s hard not to be rattled by last week’s double-digit drop in the S&P 500.

And it’s true that if the coronavirus continues to spread, we could see more people holed up in their homes, meaning less spending and less economic activity. Some analysts are already calling for a coronavirus-driven recession.

But let’s not forget that American economic data looks very good right now. The Federal Reserve sees GDP rising a healthy 2.6% in the first quarter of 2020, even accounting for the coronavirus’s impacts. Personal incomes and spending are also rising at healthy levels, so there’s no reason to panic.… Read more

What are we income-seekers to do after this latest pullback? Buy more? Sit on the sidelines?

It’s the question everyone’s asking. And while no one can predict the future, the past gives us some solid hints at what might be ahead, and the moves that make the most sense for our income portfolios (including a certain 7%-paying fund that’s more than worth your attention now).

To see what I’m getting at, let’s rewind to 2002. Then, like now, we were facing the potential of a pandemic: SARS in that case. There was other dreadful news, too: the dot-com bubble had just burst.… Read more

Flipping through my stock screener earlier this week, I ran across two of the best examples of bubbles-in-the-making I’ve ever seen:

Looking to Lose Money? Invest Here.

Those would be Tesla (TSLA), in blue above, and Virgin Galactic (SPCE), in orange.

Bubbles, of course, are nothing new: Nobel Prize–winning economist Robert Shiller explained them in his 2000 book, aptly titled Irrational Exuberance:

“Errors of human judgment can infect even the smartest people, thanks to overconfidence, lack of attention to details and excessive trust in the judgments of others, stemming from a failure to understand that others are not making independent judgments but are themselves following still others—the blind leading the blind.”… Read more

A proven recession indicator just went off again—only nine months after its last warning. And how have the markets and the media responded?

Crickets.

The funny thing is that this isn’t a bad news story for us. Because there’s a way we can profit from this signal of tougher times to come. I know that sounds counterintuitive, but stick with me for a moment and I’ll introduce you to a fund that protects—and actually grows—its 6.6% income stream when markets panic.

Before we get to that, let’s look at that recession indicator and tease out what it’s telling us.… Read more