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Today I want to go over what the economic data is telling us about the future of the financial markets in 2024.

Truth is, we are likely inching toward a recession, which means it’s time to be a bit more cautious. But at this point I only see us “backing into” a recession—and likely not till 2025, 2026 or maybe even later.

The upshot here is that when a recession does hit, we’ll want to make sure we have a steady income stream so we can keep on collecting our high payouts right through to the other side. As part of this strategy, we’re going to “lock in” the 8%+ yields (often paid monthly) available on some of our favorite closed-end funds (CEFs) while they’re still cheap.… Read more

I don’t want to be the messenger of bearish news to kick off the new year. But, as a card-carrying contrarian, I can’t help it either.

We should sell our dicey dividends now. While the market is high.

The best time to buy was October, when vanilla investors were fearful. We discussed “backing up the truck” to buy anything and everything week after week after week.

CNN’s Fear and Greed Index (FGI) had bottomed out at 16 out of 100, an Extreme Fear reading only seen during stock market panics:

1 Rally and 3 Months Ago: Extreme Fear

Meanwhile the bastion of basic financial thinking, MarketWatch.com,… Read more

Let’s kick off 2024 with great news: despite the Santa Claus rally, there are still some sweet dividend deals on the board—many hiding in plain sight.

In a second, we’ll name names and dive into my 2024 outlook, including my forecast for a 2024 recession and exactly what we’re going to be looking for in dividend payers (and growers) this year.

First, let’s tee up 2024 by reviewing the game tape from the last quarter of ’23.

Buying Fear Drove Fast Double-Digit Gains in Late ’23

Readers of my Contrarian Income Report service will recognize the Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV), one of the picks we grabbed when panic was running high in October.… Read more

Think back one year for a moment. You’ll surely recall that back in early ’23, the media was in high dudgeon, warning about an oncoming recession.

It never happened, of course, as we gleaned by simply following the data at my CEF Insider high-yielding investing service. But the “hangover” from that missed prediction is still—still!—creating opportunities for us to pick up high-yielding closed-end funds (CEFs) at bargain prices.

Here’s how: now that we’re 12 months out from those incorrect doomsday predictions, many media outlets are backtracking. Consider this recent quote from Bloomberg Opinion columnist Nir Kaissar:

“This time last year, a lot of people were convinced the US would slide into recession in 2023.… Read more

As we return Mariah Carey to the ocean depths for another year, we turn our attention to our next seasonal siren—double-digit dividend stocks.

They are, after all, the perfect way to retire on dividends, right? Put $500,000 in a portfolio of 10% payers and we’re looking at $50,000 in annual dividend income. Plus we get to keep our principal.

Right?

Not always. Most double-digit divvies are “cheap for a reason.” These are dogs dressed up as dividend payers. But the payouts are often in danger. Which means price stability is equally dicey. Which is why we often say no thanks to these mega-headline yields.… Read more

If you’ve been investing long enough, you’ve no doubt run across the 60/40 portfolio. Maybe you’ve used this approach yourself. Or maybe your financial advisor told you about it (it’s an advisor favorite!).

As the name suggests, the 60/40 portfolio is simply a portfolio that seeks to automatically balance risk by holding 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds.

It sounds sensible enough, but history shows that people who invest by this rule have been leaving a lot of money on the table for a long time:

60/40 Portfolio Pays Too High a Price for Low Volatility

One quick glance at US stocks, seen here in purple through the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI), and bonds, in orange through the Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND), shows a problem.… Read more

Raise your hand if you want to actively work for income in 2024.

(Please note your dividend strategist already has his pointer finger in the tip of his nose. Not it!)

Here at Contrarian Outlook, we prefer passive dividend income to active income, thank you very much. Because trading hours for dollars is, let’s just say it, such a drag.

A job? Tired. Dividends, meanwhile, are wired. Since ‘tis the season for resolutions, let’s discuss my top four to retire on dividends in 2024.

Dividend Resolution #1: Project Our Income

If you’re a serious dividend investor, I hope you took my advice last week and grabbed your risk-free trial to Income Calendar.… Read more

If there’s one thing we need to remember when we buy high-yield closed-end funds (CEFs), it’s this: always demand a discount.

Well, make that two: always demand a high dividend, too! Because CEFs are renowned for their high—and often monthly—payouts, with the average CEF yielding around 8% today.

But back to discounts. Luckily for us, they’re common with CEFs: of the 422 CEFs tracked by the CEF Connect screener, 384 trade at discounts to net asset value (NAV).

That’s a great place to start our search for top-notch CEFs, because these discounts are basically free money: they let us pick up, say, Mastercard (MA) for 85 cents on the dollar through a CEF like the Gabelli Dividend & Income Trust (GDV).… Read more

Let’s go ahead and use the quickest, most reliable strategy I know of to kickstart a reliable 7% income stream that rolls our way every month.

My specialty is writing about stocks, bonds and closed-end funds (CEFs), but all of these are really a means to the end of achieving financial independence. What really matters is how much income you can pull out of these investments to fund your lifestyle.

The answer is a lot more than you might imagine. I’m going to show you how to pull 7% out of three funds that pay monthly and offer diversified income streams based on bonds issued by large, well-established companies (think of this portfolio as being like a big commercial bank, but one diversified across the world).… Read more

Select real estate may be the income investing play for 2024. As I write, seven real estate investment trusts (REITs) are dishing dividends from 8.7% all the way up to 15.4%.

These REITs—and their ilk—are literally designed to deliver dividends. That’s how Congress wrote the rules when they legislated these real estate investments into existence back in 1960.

REITs avoid taxes at the corporate level. But in exchange, they need to pony up at least 90% of their taxable income and redistribute it to investors as dividends.

As a result, our average REIT yields somewhere around 2x to 3x the market.… Read more