Let me show you 3 headlines I ran across last week:

“Tax Cuts and Confidence Drive Surge of Payouts”
—Barron’s

“Global Dividends Break New Record in 2017, With More to Come for the Year Ahead”
—Institutional Asset Manager

“Trump’s Tax Cuts in Hand, Companies Spend More on Themselves Than Wages”
—New York Times

What do they have in common?

They’re all blaring out the fact that American companies have so much cash that they can’t ship it out to investors fast enough! Funny thing is, the herd is completely ignoring this fact. Check this out:

The Black Sheep …

We’re looking at the performance of the Vanguard Dividend Growth ETF (VIG), a good benchmark for stocks that consistently grow their dividend payouts, compared to the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as of March 1.… Read more

I had an odd experience a couple weeks ago.

I met up with some money managers and financial advisors. They were discussing the same problem: how tough it is to beat the market.

Since I focus on closed-end funds, and since I know of many CEFs that have beaten the market thanks to smart managers (I showed you 16 whose average return has crushed the S&P 500 back in November), I found this discussion puzzling. I asked them what they thought about the CEFs that have beaten the market.

The responses were pretty much the same. “It won’t continue … they were lucky … they just beat the market for a short period … index funds will ultimately outperform.”… Read more

Legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett recently gave us an insight into the type of dividend-paying fund he’d invest in if he could:

“Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But (partner Charlie Munger) and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.”

“Leverage” stands out because it’s a common tool used among several high-yield classes, from mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) to business development companies (BDCs). Even closed-end funds (CEFs) – which some investors turn to for relative safety versus individual stocks given CEFs’ diverse portfolios – can sport high leverage of between 30% and 60%.… Read more

Remember early February’s stock-market rout?

I know. Seems like a weird question. It was just a few weeks ago, after all. But many folks seem to have forgotten how stocks fell 10% from their 2018 high in a matter of days:

Amnesia Sets In

As you can see, the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is already recovering, and stocks are now up 3.3% for 2018. That’s still well below the 8% climb we saw in January alone, but it’s a solid return, and it means more (formerly) skittish folks will likely trickle their cash into stocks, keeping the market buoyant.… Read more

I had to laugh when I saw this Barron’s headline last week:

“REITs Are Sending a Powerful Buy Signal”

My response? Of course they are! They have been for a while now!

If you’ve been following my articles on Contrarian Outlook, you know I’m a big fan of real estate investment trusts, with their outsized dividends (and dividend growth) and upside potential.

And now the press is finally paying attention.

It is satisfying when the pundits finally catch up to us. But the bad news is that it also means our shot at the biggest gains (and dividends) is likely on borrowed time as the headline-driven herd piles in.… Read more

Insider buying can be a useful tool in identifying stocks that may be ready to move. I typically don’t put much weight into analyst recommendations because they don’t have any skin in the game. But when CEOs and other executives – who know more about the company than you and I – put their money where their mouths are and make significant purchases, I listen.

And I’ve had my ear especially close to the ground over the past few weeks. Market chaos like what we’ve seen of late chums the water, turning insiders into frenzied buyers who think they can get a deal.… Read more

It’s all but official: the Federal Reserve will hike rates three times this year, and almost certainly four. If you want to protect your portfolio (and profit), now is the time to prepare.

I told you what’s driving this inflation surge—and how long it may last—in my article last Thursday.

Today we’re going to look at 2 high-yielding closed-end funds (with a massive 7.9% average income stream between them). But before we get to that, let’s kick in the doors on the most foolish myth in investing.

The Backward Fear That Handcuffs Investors

I’m talking about the ridiculous belief that higher interest rates are bad for stocks and corporate bonds.… Read more

Most of your friends are going to struggle to make any money in U.S. stocks for the next five to seven years. They’re battling not one, not two, but three major headwinds:

1. Low yields,
2. High valuations, and
3. Rising interest rates.

Historically, half of the stock market’s returns (or more, depending on the study you believe) have come from dividends. With the S&P 500 paying just 1.8%, the math isn’t promising.

An expensive market is also problematic because it makes rising multiples unlikely. The S&P index trades for 25-times earnings today – where can it really go from here but down?

Finally, rising interest rates are a concern for many income investors.… Read more

If you’re worried inflation will sideswipe your portfolio, well, you have good reason to be.

Because make no mistake, rising prices will be the story of 2018. And if you want to protect your portfolio, you need to act now. I’ll show you how a little further on.

First, let’s go toe to toe with the inflation boogeyman, and see what kind of punch we can expect him to pack this year.

A Growing Threat

Starting late last year, the consumer price index (CPI) jumped, and the increase is accelerating as we start 2018.

Prices Heat Up

Of course, that’s probably not news to you; it’s been covered daily in the media.… Read more

Let’s assume that higher long-term rates (3%+) are here to stay. Can REITs (real estate investment trusts) and high rates co-exist? Or must there be just one winner in this suddenly one-sided tug of war?

After all, as the 10-year Treasury’s yield has rallied, REITs have suspiciously suffered:

REITs and Rates: Oil and Water?

And the headline arguments against REITs during rising rate periods seem to make sense:

• REITs need cheap money to grow, and
• When risk-free assets pay more, income investors will buy them instead of REITs.

These knocks may apply to low-yielding shares, especially static payers, but they historically haven’t applied to firms (REIT or otherwise) that have been able to grow their payouts meaningfully as rates have risen.… Read more