Author Archive: Brett Owens

Although some tariff hikes have been paused, a recession is still very much in play.

Just a few days ago, I wrote that “this is the time to recession-proof our retirement holdings.” And why not? GDP estimates have tanked. So has consumer sentiment.

Goldman Sachs made headlines for raising its probability of recession (from 20% to 35%). Fine, but equity analysts often get caught up in crowds.

What was more striking was hearing a similar message from the debt watchers. Consider this post from Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics’ chief economist:

In my previous post, I showed readers how to recession-proof their portfolio with municipal debt.… Read more

“Americans prepping for retirement aren’t watching the markets,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday.

Scotty, please. At least try to pretend you have some connection with reality.

Sure, we income investors have it better than most hopeful and current retirees. We do not rely on stock prices for income, per se. Our dividend portfolios provide us with cash flow that we use to pay our bills.

Imagine living by the “4% withdrawal rule” right now, selling 4% of our stocks every year, hoping we don’t run out of money—while the S&P 500 is dropping 4% every day as Wall Street battens down the hatches for a global recession or worse?… Read more

There aren’t a lot of things we can say for certain these days, but there is one: We dividend investors are far better off than the mainstream crowd!

Consider the unlucky souls who hold “America’s ticker”—my name for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). I call it that because, well, pretty well everyone owns it (it’s okay if you have SPY hiding somewhere in your portfolio—we don’t judge!)

These poor folks have taken the brunt of the market crash—and they’re getting “paid” a mere 1.4% for the pleasure.

Our Dividend Picks Are Built for Trying Times 

We contrarian dividend investors, meantime, know the value of high, safe payouts.… Read more

The only thing I love more than dividends is dividend growth. And ‘tis the season for payout raises as  first-quarter earnings season kicks into gear.

I have my eye on companies that have recently announced dividend hikes of 28%, 52%, even 150%. If we get similar dividend growth this time around, great—more money in our pockets. But just as important is the confidence they’d be communicating with big raises amid an extremely uncertain economic environment.

Regular readers know about my “Dividend Magnet” strategy—three signs that can lead to massive price gains. The most important sign is dividend growth, which is management’s way of saying “We’re growing profits, and we know those profits are going to stick!”… Read more

The economy is slowing. And if you believe that these tariff-tapping brakes are going to land us in a recession, these tax-equivalent yields up to 12.4% are for you.

This is the time to recession-proof our retirement holdings. The new administration appears to want to get a slowdown “out of the way” early. Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast says the economy is already shrinking:

Meanwhile the latest University of Michigan consumer sentiment report shows that confidence is falling fast. The index dropped to 57.9 in March—its lowest level since November 2022:

Back then we were emerging from a sharp and painful 10-month bear market.… Read more

Don’t buy into this trade panic—truth is, the market’s “tariff tantrum” is a goldmine for us contrarians. Today we’re going to mine it with two stocks whose dividends are skyrocketing—including one that’s pumped up its payout by 410% in the last decade alone.

Worrying Times Are When Fortunes Are Made

We contrarians know that times like these are when the mainstream crowd makes its biggest mistakes. And those blunders give us the chance to snag the strong, and growing, dividends they’ve tossed in a panic.

Like the first of two stocks we’re going to talk about today. From a first-level analysis, this Ireland-based company looks like it’ll get run over the next time “Tariff Man” holds a press conference.… Read more

Interest rates are trending lower, which means real estate investment trusts (REITs) are rallying. These “bond proxies” tend to move alongside bonds and opposite rates.

If you believe the economy is likely to continue slowing, then select REITs are intriguing income plays here. Especially those yielding between 7.2% and 13.2%, which we’ll discuss shortly.

As I’ve been saying for a few weeks, the real story is in longer rates, namely the 10-year Treasury. I spelled this out in a recent article.

To recap, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been upfront that he and President Trump are focused on the 10-year Treasury rate (the “long” end of the yield curve), and not the Fed benchmark (the “short” end).… Read more

The average S&P 500 drawdown during a recession since 1990 is 40%. Recent economic data show that we are now careening towards a slowdown. Check out the bearish trends from Atlanta’s GDPNow forecast:

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is standing watch as DOGE shifts resources and money away from the public sector. The Secretary needs lower long-term interest rates so that he can sell bonds without breaking Uncle Sam’s bank!

How does this work? Last month alone, DOGE chopped 63,000 jobs. Bessent welcomes this softening of the labor market—increasing the available labor supply—because he has $9 trillion in federal debt to refinance this year.… Read more

Let me start with a prediction: Interest rates are going to fall this year—and by more than most people think.

When that happens, bonds—including one discounted 8.7%-paying bond fund we’ll get into shortly—are poised to head skyward.

Rates down, bonds up. That’s the law of Bond-land. It’s a simple fact that a lot of people, hopelessly caught up in the “tariffs cause inflation” storyline, are missing.

Bessent (and Trump) Go Over Jay Powell’s Head

Forget about the Fed standing pat on rates last week. Forget about Jay Powell saying he’s waiting for more clarity on the Trump administration’s policies before setting the ultimate direction of rates.… Read more

When C-level types lay down five, six, even seven figures to scoop up shares, we listen.

After all, there is only one reason why executives buy their own stock. They believe the price is going up.

Insider buying is a great cue. But it is important for us to understand what “signal” buys look like.

Many executives have automatic buying programs, so like clockwork, we’ll see them snap up a few thousand shares at, say, the start of every quarter.

So what we really care about are sudden acquisitions across one or more insiders that fall well outside of their normal buying habits.… Read more