Author Archive: David Peltier

U.S. investors appeared more than happy to turn the calendar to June this week. After the Nasdaq Composite reached correction territory on Monday, the broader stock market averages rebounded more than 2% across the board on Tuesday.

Even with 5% tariff on Mexican imports set to go in effect on June 10, the initial recovery sparked a multi-day rally. The rebound was ignited by the realization that the FOMC would be more likely to step in and lower interest rates, to better reflect market pricing in the Treasury yield curve.

The May jobs report on Friday was another case where “bad news is good for stocks”.… Read more

U.S. markets were closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday, but the selling pressure on stocks did not take a break this week.

There was little progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. In fact, President Trump declared trade war in a new theater on Thursday, proposing a 5% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico, beginning June 10.

This continued global economic uncertainty sent investors looking for safety in bonds. Short-term rates moved so low on Wednesday that the yield on 3-month bills T-bills was 14 basis points below 10-year notes, which is a level of inversion that hasn’t been seen since the Financial Crisis.… Read more

A three-day holiday may be just what the U.S. stock market needs. Investors turned more defensive in the last week of trading before Summer kicks off on Monday with the Memorial Day holiday.

Traders bought bonds this week, pushing rates lower, while selling stocks. The trade war between China and the U.S. heated up again and investors were spooked by reports of slower growth in Europe. UK Prime Minister Theresa May also said on Friday that she will step down in June, after failing to execute a Brexit strategy in the past three years.

Elsewhere, crude oil posted its worst one-day performance for 2019 on Thursday, though remains 25% higher year-to-date.… Read more

The ongoing trade dispute with China frightened U.S. investors again on Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 617 points. However, markets were able to claw back those losses over the next three trading sessions.

While no resolution has been made between the two superpowers, the war of words has since quieted down. In addition, investors cheered solid earnings reports from blue-chips, like Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Wal-Mart (WMT).

Calculating the Tariff Cost

Still, President Trump has vowed to consider tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods next month, if the two countries don’t agree to a truce by the G20 Summit in Japan.… Read more

Needless to say, this week got off to a bad start for Bulls, before Monday morning even rolled around.

Selling pressure started over the weekend, when most investors probably weren’t even thinking about stocks. President Trump fired off a tweet on Sunday, suggesting the U.S. would raise tariffs on $200 billion Chinese goods from 10% to 25% on Friday and consider taxing another $325 billion of items.

A war of words ensued on both sides and the news kicked off a roller coaster ride in the global markets. The U.S. followed through with its threats on Friday and the Chinese have promised retaliatory trade actions.… Read more

An old stock market adage suggests that investors “Sell in May and go away”. The first part of that saying held true, at least for the first couple of days of the new month.

The move was likely driven by profit-taking, as the S&P 500 index ended April, closing Tuesday at a record high. The FOMC also poured some water on the rally Wednesday, as comments with the latest interest rate decision talked down expectations for an interest rate cut.

On the other hand, Friday’s April jobs report was a win for the bulls. The U.S. economy added 263,000 non-farm payrolls in the month, which was well ahead of the estimate of 190,000.… Read more

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes set new record highs on Tuesday, as first-quarter earnings continued to exceed low expectations this week. The rally this week completed a sharp 25% comeback in the S&P 500 that started when U.S. markets bottomed during the last week of December.

There was strong economic data reported in the U.S. this week, highlighted by a blowout first-quarter GDP reading on Friday. We experienced 3.2% growth in the domestic economy last quarter, which smashed the estimate of 2.5%.

New home sales were another beacon of light on Tuesday, showing a 3% increase for March. The print exceeded expectations and marked the highest level in 17 months.… Read more

U.S. stocks posted modest gains this week, which was shortened by the Good Friday holiday. The first full week of earnings season saw largely positive reports, especially from the banks, given the fact that aggregate profits are expected to decline 3% to 4% in the first quarter.

The earnings decline in the face of robust gains to begin 2019 was enough to send strategists at Jefferies to the sidelines this week. On Monday, the firm lowered its rating on U.S. Equities to Modestly Bearish, in the context of their global asset allocation.

However, overall investor sentiment remains high in this country.… Read more

The S&P 500 snapped an eight-session winning streak on Tuesday, but U.S. stocks still have strong momentum heading into the first-quarter earnings season.

The index flirted with the 2,900 level this week, which is a price that we haven’t seen since last October. One big change since then is that average U.S. earnings showed 20%-plus year-over-year growth in the first three quarters of 2018 and now we’re staring at the first quarterly earnings decline in the S&P 500 in three years.

The quarterly reports we’ll see over the next few weeks will go a long way to determining if the recent momentum can continue.… Read more

The domestic stock market averages started April on a positive note and on Thursday, the S&P 500 index achieved its longest winning streak in over a year.

Taking a bit further look back, Bespoke Investment Group noted this week that it’s now been 100 days since the major U.S. indexes bottomed in late December. Highlighted in the following table, Industrial and Technology names have led the average 22% gain in the S&P 500 since then, while healthcare stocks have lagged.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group  

Full Slate of Economic News

In overseas news this week, Theresa May suffered yet another defeat in Parliament, regarding the Brexit process.… Read more