Last year, the White House published a blog post titled “As the US Consumer Goes, So Goes the US Economy.”

No matter what your politics are, I think we can all agree that America’s economy depends on consumers buying things. For us income investors, then, the consumer’s health is a key thing to watch, as it ultimately sets the direction of stocks.

So how healthy is the US consumer today, and can we confidently buy stocks—and better still, high-yielding CEFs like the one we’ll talk about below (current yield: 10%)?

Often, the signals are murky. America is, after all, a big country with a lot of people in it, and some of those people are obviously doing better than others, so it’s tricky to zero in on the overall health of consumers.… Read more

Of course, we all love it when the stock market soars like it has. But what if stocks pull back? We’ve already seen three big drops this year, so it’s fair to think another one could be lurking around the corner.

With that in mind, it makes sense to diversify beyond stocks—especially now. There’s a type of closed-end fund (CEF) out there that’s perfect for this: those that hold municipal bonds, which are issued by state and local governments to fund infrastructure projects.

CEFs, as members of my CEF Insider service know, are great buys for income (the average CEF yields around 8% today) and gains: These funds’ discounts to net asset value (NAV, or the value of their underlying portfolios) give us price gains as they narrow.… Read more

If you are a serious dividend investor, then you know the answer to this question:

How much dividend income are you going to make next month?

If you don’t know, then you’re not as dedicated to dividends as you thought. Disappointing, but fixable with Income Calendar.

And please, don’t tell me I’m being hard on you. If that’s the way you feel, then this is the tough love that you need. Your wakeup call for fall.

It’s time to treat your dividend investing like a business. Because it is.

And hey, I get it. We’re rolling towards 2025. Nobody wants to mess with tedious spreadsheets like these anymore.… Read more

I know it goes without saying that we’ve all loved watching our dividend stocks skyrocket this year. But October—as always, it seems—has amped-up the volatility.

The end of the year looks choppy, with a widening war in the Middle East and a contentious (to say the least!) election on tap here at home.

That makes now the time to sell any flawed dividends you may hold “on the rip.” We’ll break down one of these losers below. It’s the kind of stock that’s gone nowhere for so long that you may even have forgotten you own it!

But we’re not just going into a defensive crouch here, because despite the market run-up, there are still some cheap dividend growers on the board.… Read more

When I show you a chart like the one below, your first thought might be that we’re looking at, say, the recent stock performance of NVIDIA (NVDA)—or maybe a biopharma firm that just dropped a breakthrough treatment:

Not a Tech Stock—Just a “Boring” Index Fund

But you’d be wrong. What we’re looking at here is the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), an index fund tracking the Chinese stock market, up to its peak early last week.

That jump is the direct result of the Chinese Communist Party’s recently announced stimulus package.

The gains have attracted the attention of Chinese day traders and speculators, as well as those in the West.… Read more

“Buy bonds!” – Contrarian Outlook, 2H 2022

Two years later, the herd finally hopped on our fixed-income bandwagon…

“Buy bonds!” – Wall Street, 2H 2024

Yes, it is satisfying to be right. But it also makes me nervous that mainstream (“vanilla”) investors now agree with us.

If you bought with us, you are sitting pretty. On the other hand, if you are trying to put new money to work today, this is a challenging time. I don’t like buying high and I especially avoid purchasing popular names.

Case in point, my favorite PIMCO products in the closed-end fund (CEF) space.… Read more

Normally when interest rates fall, we closed-end fund (CEF) investors are tempted to pick up a fund like the 7.3%-paying Royce Small-Cap Trust (RVT).

It seems like a particularly savvy move today, with this small cap–focused CEF trading at a 10.3% discount to net asset value (NAV, or the value of its underlying portfolio). Cheap!

But is that really a good value, or could RVT get cheaper still?

Let’s take a look, starting with small caps generally. Like large caps, they benefit as lower rates boost consumer spending. But there are two other factors that make falling-rate periods particularly advantageous for smaller firms:

1. They mean lower borrowing costs for investors, allowing them to invest on margin more than they would otherwise.

If you’re reading this, I assume you are already bullish on oil. Or at least intrigued by the upside possibility. And why not? There are three reasons crude may continue to crescendo.

First, we have the Middle East situation… ‘nuff said.

Second, it is increasingly looking like the Federal Reserve is cutting rates sans the usual impending recession. Rather than a hard or soft landing, it looks like we will see “no landing” at all in which the economy continues to grow.

We contrarians called this no-landing scenario five weeks ago. Since then, it has gained traction on Wall Street as employment numbers have stayed strong.… Read more

Another day, another sign the economy is heading straight for that “no-landing” scenario I’ve been talking about for weeks now …

… and yet another sign the two dividends we’re going to discuss today are better buys than they’ve been in months.

(One of these staunch payers kicks out a rich 8% divvie. The other has grown its dividend a ridiculous 425% in the last five years. A buy back then would be kicking out a sweet 6.2% dividend today, thanks to that breakneck growth!)

Inside the Economy’s “Touch and Go” Landing

When you hear “no landing,” your first impression might be that it sounds like a good thing, right?… Read more

Having a diversified portfolio is pretty much Investing 101, right?

I mean, it’s one of the first things we all learn as investors. But there’s a problem here: Going for balance in “regular” stocks, bonds or ETFs can mean leaving income on the table.

To see what I’m getting at here, check out the average yields on two ETFs many people buy for stock and bond exposure. For stocks, I likely don’t have to tell you about the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). It’s the popular S&P 500 tracker. And it yields a microscopic 1.2%.

There are plenty of options on the bond side, but let’s go with a fairly high-yielding ETF, the SPDR Bloomberg High-Yield Bond ETF (JNK).… Read more