Author Archive: Brett Owens

The Federal Reserve tightened until it broke something: the small banks. Classic Fed!

Meanwhile, here at Contrarian Outlook, we’ve been waiting patiently for a big buying opportunity. Biding our time. So… is this our moment?

Bank runs are textbook “blood in the streets” moments. There’s fear. There’s loathing. This is usually our cue to spring into action.

So, should we contrarians simply “hold our noses” and buy?

Regional bank stocks haven’t been this cheap since the summer of 2020. Sure, Silicon Valley Bank has gone to zero. But many small businesses, mine included, still prefer to bank with the folks down the street.… Read more

There’s a “delayed reaction” dividend play (for tax-free 5% yields) waiting for us in municipal bonds right now—and it’s not going to last.

I know, I know. “Munis” don’t exactly get most folks’ hearts racing. But the fact that this corner of the market tends to lag behind stocks, bonds and the rest is exactly what’s behind our opportunity here.

Plus, we get to buy cheap and get our dividends monthly when we buy our munis through a closed-end fund (CEF). That’s because most muni CEFs pay monthly—including a 5.3% payer called the Nuveen Municipal High Income Opportunity Fund (NMZ), the particulars of which we’ll delve into below.… Read more

Is it time for us contrarians to “buy the dip” in bank stocks?

We’re drowning in big bank-scare headlines. Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) knuckled under in days, Signature Bank (SBNY) wasn’t too far behind, and across the pond, Credit Suisse (CS) needed a buyout bailout from rival UBS (UBS).

The next bank run, however, won’t be with the big boys. Too big to fail, baby. Here, we’ll find not only government help but also secure yields of up to 5.1%—trading at a discount, no less.

Why the big guys? Well let me show you. Last week, my software firm received this email from one of our vendors:

“Brett, Just wanted to give you our new banking details.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is scared. First, it was UK pension funds. Now, the entire banking system has liquidity issues.

Fourteen years of quantitative easing is a tough habit to break! We are one year into the Fed’s attempt to tighten monetary conditions.

Should we buy bargains? Or sell now and go shopping later?

Fellow contrarians want to know! Our Contrarian Outlook customer service line has been hot. Today, we’ll put on our short-term thinking caps and discuss your dividend trading questions.

Q: Do you see any good buys among the regional banks where the “baby got thrown out with the SVB bathwater?”… Read more

We’re going to ride this Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) fiasco to big dividend payouts—I’m talking yields up to 12.6%!—and quick upside, too.

I’ll walk you through exactly what we’re going to do below. Then I’ll name two unloved (for now!) dividends we’ll target.

We’re Not Dropping a Quarter Into GameStop II

One thing we’re not going to do is sell anything short—even though, as Bloomberg recently told us, the “shorts” cleaned up on SVB. All in, they pocketed $2 billion as “tech bros’” fav bank froze, then crashed.

We contrarian dividend players tip our hats to these daring degenerates. They rolled the dice and things broke their way.… Read more

Insiders may sell their shares for a variety of reasons. Usually, because they need the cash.

But execs who know “what’s up” with their company better than anyone only buy with one purpose in mind.

They believe their stock price is going higher. Or, if it’s a dividend stock, at least it is not going down anytime soon!

We’re going to highlight dividends up to 15.8% (yes, that’s no typo) with recent insider buying. This is especially notable these days because:

• Vanilla investors are worried this is 2008, Part Deux.
• Inflation is still running hot.
• And stocks have been going down for 15 months and counting.

Generally, recessions are bullish for bonds. Which makes this 4% bond yield a “best recession bet.”

Why are we talking bonds when, over the past 18 months, they have all been crushed? Well, that’s the reason. The cure for poor bond performance is the high yields that are now staring us in the face. We look forward, not backward.

If you took our cue and used cash under your mattress as a bond proxy lately, then you are sitting pretty. Because now, we finally have attractive fixed-income yields!

Granted, safety is the key here. Remember, we are picking an economic slowdown as our catalyst.… Read more

Right now we’ve got a terrific setup happening in Treasuries—and we’re going to use it to “flip” the near-4% yield the 10-year pays into a gaudy 7.9%+, paid monthly, to boot.

And there’s more: we’re going to give ourselves a rare “double discount” on our bond buys.

We’ll do it by taking already-discounted bonds (thanks to Jay Powell’s Dirty Harry act on rates) and applying a second discount by purchasing through two closed-end funds (CEFs) we’ll talk about in a bit.

The window to use this strategy is now open. Take a look at this chart to see what I’m getting at here:

The 10-Year Rate Bounces Off Its 4% Ceiling (Again)

Over the past 15 years, the yield on the 10-year has zoomed higher plenty of times, until it smacks into the 4% “ceiling.”… Read more

Most vanilla investors like to buy stocks that are well-liked by Wall Street analysts.

This strategy, my contrarian friend, we know is a recipe for disaster.

Why? Well, firms that are already popular with stock jocks have nowhere to go but down. Discarded names, on the other hand, are where the action is because these are the next “analyst upgrade” candidates.

These prices have little downside and lots of upside!

It is difficult to find these out-of-favor plays because most analysts wear rose-colored glasses. They know how their bread gets buttered, and that’s with a bullish outlook.

Which is why a Sell rating is so darned interesting to us.… Read more

“Do you have cherries?” my buddy Ralph asked over the phone.

It was January 2021. Sports bars here in California were closed, so we naturally turned our backyard into one.

“No,” I replied. And sighed in an honest admission. “Only beer. Lots of beer.”

“No problem. I got ‘em.”

My buddy also had a mini-keg of delicious old-fashioneds. His creations were dangerously delicious. He’d begun making and aging fine adult beverages to pass time in the pandemic.

And the maraschino cherries he brought played no small role in his cocktail’s critical acclaim.

Is it five o’clock yet? Just kidding (mostly). We are talking about maraschinos in a dividend column because we finally have some bond funds worth cherry picking.… Read more