Author Archive: Brett Owens

Me: “Let’s find companies with lots of debt and buy them. And make a lot of money.”

You: “Wait, what?”

(Nod as always to the late, great Norm Macdonald.)

Hear me out. Last week, plain vanilla investors threw a midweek fit when Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell said something we contrarians assumed already: No rate cut coming in March.

The Fed decides the Fed funds rate. This often cues the two-year Treasury yield to follow. (Yes, sometimes, the two-year leads. As always in economics and relationships, it’s complicated.)

We can debate who leads who, but the key is that the Fed controls short-term rates, but the bond market determines long-term rates.… Read more

If we can say one thing about the rest of 2024, it’s this: We’re looking at a stock-picker’s year here—and folks who try to play it with vanilla ETFs will have a tough time.

Just look at the state of play in front of us.

The Fed is trying to thread a needle, and if economic numbers come in too hot or too cold for Goldilocks, well, good luck holding something like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)!

In an environment like this, a good plan is to zig when the market zags.

To do so, we’re targeting stocks in the bargain bin with “recession-resistant” strengths such as steady revenue from clients who must buy their services no matter what.… Read more

Magnificent Seven? Tired.

Dividend Six? Wired.

Plain vanilla investors fawn over chipmakers and AI stocks. They hope they can buy them high, and sell them higher.

Contrarian income investors like us? We focus on the companies that support the AI hype. The “pick and shovel” providers. A “Dividend Six” that plays on AI and pays $26,000 to $41,500 in dividends alone on a $500K stake.

With that we’ll say move over, Magnificent Seven—a term coined by Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett (and inspired by the classic Sturges Western) to describe the market’s predominant tech names.

Those stocks? Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META), Amazon.com… Read more

Ten years ago, the city athletics director wrote:

Hi Guys,
I need to place an order for championship softball shirts. It should say West Sacramento’s Summer 2014 C/D Division Champions. Bad Decisions.

Bad Decisions was our team name, a nod to our personnel. I mean that in the most endearing way possible, of course. A lineup filled with guys light on responsibility (at the time) who enjoyed the postgame rehydration process as much as the in-game competition:

With two kids, my postgame rituals are different these days. First, a trip out can only occur after our final YMCA basketball game on Saturdays—my third and final game to coach that day.… Read more

This market bounce is strangling the payouts on everybody’s favorite ETFs. But it’s also given us a sweet setup to grab another group of funds kicking out big dividends, to the tune of 9%+ yields.

Even better, many of these funds—wallflowers to “popular-kid” ETFs—were left off the invite list for the 2023 market party. That means they’re (still) cheap today.

I know a 9% payout has a lot of appeal to most folks, with Treasury yields now down to around 4%, not too far above inflation.

And if your cash is stuck in an ETF, you’re getting a lame payout, well, almost all the time, but especially if you buy now: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)—which, as the name says, holds the entire S&P 500 index—yields a sorry 1.4% as I write this.… Read more

Today we’ll discuss five monthly dividends with yields between 7.3% and 16.7%. But let’s be careful—market participants are showing signs of greed right now.

Source: CNN

Monthly dividend stocks can help settle down a seasick portfolio. First, they pay every 30 days. What a concept! Their payments line up with our bills. Brilliant.

Quarterly payers aren’t as nice. Let’s look at a $500,000 portfolio split evenly among a group of five mega-cap dividend payers. This is a set of wildly popular blue chips you can find in the top 10 or top 20 holdings of just about every major large-cap fund—and despite this, they deliver a downright miserly sub-1% yield!… Read more

“You want a shot?”

My single friend Roy is always looking for a whiskey partner. I winced. In a past life, I’d be in.

“I can’t,” was my excuse, grimacing and nodding at my nine-year-old daughter who accompanied me to our local watering hole for a late lunch and playoff football.

Responsibility makes us evolve. Usually, hopefully for the better. Some of the evolutions are obvious. Stay responsible while you’re parenting. Don’t buy stocks when everybody else loves them.

In my younger whiskey days, “investing” was all about action. Give me that new stock idea. The monthly pick. Be in it to win it.… Read more

Three weeks into 2024 and here’s the state of play: rates have fallen and likely headed lower. That’s going to light a fire under our favorite dividend payers.

It already has!

Think back three months, to mid-October. Back then, 10-year Treasury yields sat at just under 5%. Now they sit at 4.1%—a 19% drop! It’s been great for our dividend payers, as income-hungry folks start to look for other options.

That shift has just started, and it’s got plenty more room to run.

Consider the 8.5%-paying Cohen & Steers Infrastructure Fund (UTF), a closed-end fund (CEF) that’s a classic dividend play, holding shares of “recession-resistant” utilities like NextEra Energy (NEE) and Southern Company (SO).… Read more

I was at the State Fair with one of my best friends from Elementary School. We were 2,000 miles from our old school stompin’ grounds. And my buddy had been, ahem, a bit overserved.

“It feels like the first time!” he belted alongside Lou Gramm, the former lead singer of Foreigner. No longer kids, we had matured. Now we were slamming beers within sud-splashing distance of the Lou Gramm Band.

We’ll channel Lou and Foreigner today as we consider five fresh dividends. They don’t happen often but, when they do, it’s a special moment. A sign of actual corporate maturity. Management saying we’re no longer kids chasing growth, we’re going to start dishing cash to shareholders.… Read more

Many investors are worried. About a hard economic landing. The Federal Reserve keeping rates high. The 2024 election.

Fair enough. Fortunately, the headline worries are usually priced in. The popular “threatdown” rarely thwarts the market.

On the other hand, we contrarians fret about the scenario that may come out of left field. We worry not about a hard landing. Or a soft landing. The underappreciated risk is the no landing that reignites inflation.

Rates down, assets up—let the good times roll! It will be fun for a while. Until prices skyrocket again.

Fed Chair Jay Powell has officially pivoted from his hawkish stance.… Read more