Author Archive: Michael Foster

Let’s talk about inflation for a moment, because worries over rising prices are boiling over, and we contrarians can work them to our advantage.

If you’ve been watching the markets—and I’m guessing you have—you know that the rising 10-year Treasury yield, and the specter of inflation it brings, has weighed on stocks—particularly tech stocks.

Inflation Worries Weigh on Tech

As you can see, the tech-heavy NASDAQ, which outperforms the S&P 500 over just about any timeline, has fallen well behind in 2021 as of this writing. Meantime, Treasury rates continue their climb.

Inflation Pressures Rise

Here’s where the story gets interesting, because normally inflation fears trigger a rush into gold—but that’s just not happening this time.… Read more

One group of funds is doing something very unusual right now: they’re raising their dividends by double digits! And those huge hikes have driven the yields on some of these unsung income plays well above 7%.

Today we’re going to jump on this red-hot contrarian opportunity.

These smartly run dividend payers (and growers!) are closed-end funds (CEFs) that hold floating-rate loans. These assets are often overlooked, which is too bad, because they’re corporate bonds that do the opposite of what most bonds do. That makes them perfect buys for upside in today’s market, when “regular” corporate bonds’ prices are plunging.

Let me explain how floating-rate loans work, and how we’ll squeeze them for strong gains and growing 7%+ dividends.… Read more

The chicken littles fretting about inflation are ignoring something: the “bonus” $2.9 trillion that’s primed to ignite stocks—one group of stocks in particular.

The $2.9 trillion isn’t a new stimulus plan (although those seem to roll out daily). It’s the extra savings hoarded by consumers around the world. To put that in context, global GDP is about $89 trillion, so the total saved will amount to 3.3% of extra growth when it’s finally unleashed.

You’d think most economists would have already accounted for this savings glut in their projections. You’d also expect markets to price in this information. But neither is the case.… Read more

We’re contrarians first and foremost here at Contrarian Outlook, so when we hear the latest “sure thing” from the mainstream crowd, we get more than a little suspicious.

So it goes with the recent round of selling on the stock markets, which has been driven by the “certainty” that interest rates will skyrocket, and higher rates will crush demand for stocks, especially the tech stocks that have driven the market’s rebound from the March 2020 crash.

Does this view stand up (sneak preview: no)? And what should we contrarians do in response (sneak preview: buy what everyone else is selling—particularly through a group of funds sporting some very impressive dividend yields).… Read more

There’s $2 trillion in cash headed straight into the US economy, and today we’re going to grab a share, both in the form of price gains and dividends.

I’m talking about the latest stimulus plan that’s made its way through the House of Representatives.

While plenty of folks fret over the rise in public debt this $1.9-trillion plan brings—and that’s a real concern—it’s a problem for another day. The cash is needed to get the economy through to the other side of the current crisis.

And pretty well all of this package is set to get spent through direct payouts to people and organizations that will spend it, with the headline item being $1,400 in stimulus checks (or about $1.1 trillion in all) going to taxpayers.… Read more

Patriotism is rarely a good guide when making investment decisions, but these days it just might be, as Americans now have a terrific reason to buy US stocks.

That would be a surge in vaccinations that’s put the US ahead of most of the world on the road to recovery, while at the same time, US stocks are lagging behind their global competitors. This is a disconnect contrarians like us can use to position ourselves for some nice gains and big dividends in the months ahead.

US Vaccinations Ramping Up

Source: Bloomberg

Right now, we’re seeing an average of about 2.5 million doses being distributed across the US per day, meaning we could hit the bottom edge of herd immunity in about 50 days.… Read more

One of the great things about closed-end funds (CEFs) is that there’s one out there we can use to tap just about any trend—and turn it into a nice 7.1%+ dividend payout.

Take the surge in retail we saw last month. Despite the pandemic, Americans are hitting the stores again (with many doing so online):

Retail Sales Surge

In January, retail sales jumped 5.3%, far ahead of economists’ expectations of 1.2% gains. This was helped by a 0.7% sales drop in December, but it’s undoubtedly the result of the latest round of stimulus checks.

Retail ETF Soars, But Its Dividend Leaves Much to Be Desired

That’s great news for retailers because it proves that consumers are spending their COVID aid money instead of hoarding it.… Read more

You may not know it, but you could have enough money saved to retire right now.

It’s true!

Today we’re going to look at how you can pull a nice $30,000-a-year income stream from your current hoard, even if you’ve saved just $250K. Best of all, you could generate this cash stream without selling a single stock from your portfolio. That could very well be enough for you to clock out, or at least scale back your day job.

Along the way, I’ll also show you how to dodge some of the worst yield traps in dividend-land.

Be Wary of High-Yield Blue Chips

To be honest, I don’t know why anyone would be surprised that this approach is possible.… Read more

With the market scraping all-time highs—and dividend yields scraping historic lows—you’re probably thinking there’s nowhere you can find big, safe dividends with at least some price upside right now.

Well, you’re far from alone. The good news is, there’s still one place where the undervalued dividend payers you crave are common.

Today I’m going to show you exactly where to find these buys, in a sector rife with bargain-priced high dividends yielding all the way up to 12.5%. That’s more than 10X what the average S&P 500 stock pays.

Step 1 of Our Dividend Bargain Hunt: Step Back … Way Back

This gives us a nice opportunity to hone our value-seeking skills, too, by doing one of my favorite things—drilling down into the latest earnings numbers, which is something too few investors do.… Read more

A wild year like 2020 is a great acid test for closed-end funds (CEFs)—and it can tell us a lot about which of these high-yield plays to pick (and avoid!) as we move deeper into 2021.

A Split Market

If 2020 did anything, it widened the gap between winning and losing sectors of the stock (and closed-end fund) market. It just goes to show how critical it is to pick funds in the right sectors, as well as those with savvy management that can shift with the times.

Technology, of course, boomed last year. At my CEF Insider service, we were well-positioned in tech with the BlackRock Science and Technology Fund (BST), which we added to our portfolio in August 2019.… Read more