Articles

I get it if you’re a bit wary of this latest market rally: We’ve got a volatile (to say the least!) election now days away. And while the Fed says rates are headed lower, there’s still a lingering uncertainty about where, exactly, they’ll land.

While a bit of anxiety is understandable, we do not want to make the same mistake many “vanilla” investors do at times like these: go all into cash.

For one, humans are terrible at predicting the future—remember those warnings of a 100% chance of a recession in 2023?—so safe to say a good number of today’s investment worries are unlikely to come to pass.… Read more

I have to laugh when I hear a pundit say that individual investors can’t beat the S&P 500 (and you and I both know this is something we hear quite regularly!).

Truth is, it’s not that hard. Heck, you really only have to choose an ETF from a different sector, like real estate investment trusts (REITs)!

REITs Beat Stocks in the Long Run

As you can see, these “landlords”—shown by the performance of the benchmark SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (RWR) in purple above—have easily outpaced the S&P 500 for the 20 years following the ETF’s inception back in 2001.

That outperformance occurred even with the subprime-mortgage crisis (which was obviously real estate focused) and the pandemic selloff (which hit REITs particularly hard, shuttering malls, warehouses and offices across the world).… Read more

“If you own dividend-paying stocks, you’d be a fool to not be using Income Calendar,” my man Mark P. from California writes.

Tell ‘em, Mark!

We are devoted to retiring on dividends here at Contrarian Outlook. But a little bit of work in retirement is OK. As income investors, we should be able to project our income.

Note that I said a little bit of work. Not a lot! I am not interested in fiddling with spreadsheets until the end of time, and neither is my man Mark.

If you’re with us, why not hop onboard the Income Calendar train with Mark and me?… Read more

Last week’s oil-price drop has set us up to buy some top-flight energy dividends on the cheap. We’re going to grab one with a “hidden” 10.3% yield in just a moment.

First, this buy window goes well beyond a dip in the price of the goo. Fact is, oil dropped because things calmed (slightly) in the Middle East.

But of course, that can change again, and quickly. The real oil story for us is that the drop (along with a double-digit decline in natural-gas prices since the start of October) is happening as energy demand is set to rise.

So desperate is the need for energy these days that Big Tech is turning to long-shuttered nuclear reactors.… Read more

Last year, the White House published a blog post titled “As the US Consumer Goes, So Goes the US Economy.”

No matter what your politics are, I think we can all agree that America’s economy depends on consumers buying things. For us income investors, then, the consumer’s health is a key thing to watch, as it ultimately sets the direction of stocks.

So how healthy is the US consumer today, and can we confidently buy stocks—and better still, high-yielding CEFs like the one we’ll talk about below (current yield: 10%)?

Often, the signals are murky. America is, after all, a big country with a lot of people in it, and some of those people are obviously doing better than others, so it’s tricky to zero in on the overall health of consumers.… Read more

Of course, we all love it when the stock market soars like it has. But what if stocks pull back? We’ve already seen three big drops this year, so it’s fair to think another one could be lurking around the corner.

With that in mind, it makes sense to diversify beyond stocks—especially now. There’s a type of closed-end fund (CEF) out there that’s perfect for this: those that hold municipal bonds, which are issued by state and local governments to fund infrastructure projects.

CEFs, as members of my CEF Insider service know, are great buys for income (the average CEF yields around 8% today) and gains: These funds’ discounts to net asset value (NAV, or the value of their underlying portfolios) give us price gains as they narrow.… Read more

If you are a serious dividend investor, then you know the answer to this question:

How much dividend income are you going to make next month?

If you don’t know, then you’re not as dedicated to dividends as you thought. Disappointing, but fixable with Income Calendar.

And please, don’t tell me I’m being hard on you. If that’s the way you feel, then this is the tough love that you need. Your wakeup call for fall.

It’s time to treat your dividend investing like a business. Because it is.

And hey, I get it. We’re rolling towards 2025. Nobody wants to mess with tedious spreadsheets like these anymore.… Read more

I know it goes without saying that we’ve all loved watching our dividend stocks skyrocket this year. But October—as always, it seems—has amped-up the volatility.

The end of the year looks choppy, with a widening war in the Middle East and a contentious (to say the least!) election on tap here at home.

That makes now the time to sell any flawed dividends you may hold “on the rip.” We’ll break down one of these losers below. It’s the kind of stock that’s gone nowhere for so long that you may even have forgotten you own it!

But we’re not just going into a defensive crouch here, because despite the market run-up, there are still some cheap dividend growers on the board.… Read more

When I show you a chart like the one below, your first thought might be that we’re looking at, say, the recent stock performance of NVIDIA (NVDA)—or maybe a biopharma firm that just dropped a breakthrough treatment:

Not a Tech Stock—Just a “Boring” Index Fund

But you’d be wrong. What we’re looking at here is the iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI), an index fund tracking the Chinese stock market, up to its peak early last week.

That jump is the direct result of the Chinese Communist Party’s recently announced stimulus package.

The gains have attracted the attention of Chinese day traders and speculators, as well as those in the West.… Read more

“Buy bonds!” – Contrarian Outlook, 2H 2022

Two years later, the herd finally hopped on our fixed-income bandwagon…

“Buy bonds!” – Wall Street, 2H 2024

Yes, it is satisfying to be right. But it also makes me nervous that mainstream (“vanilla”) investors now agree with us.

If you bought with us, you are sitting pretty. On the other hand, if you are trying to put new money to work today, this is a challenging time. I don’t like buying high and I especially avoid purchasing popular names.

Case in point, my favorite PIMCO products in the closed-end fund (CEF) space.… Read more