Author Archive: Brett Owens

We aren’t falling for this “head fake” oil plunge. Instead we’re buying what I like to call the “Biden barrel discount”— grabbing beaten-down oil stocks with surging dividends!

I’ll drop two tickers primed to ride oil’s next bounce higher in a second. First, though, here’s what I mean by the “Biden barrel discount”:

Sure, oil has pulled back on recession worries, but the US has also been releasing crude from its “emergency” supply, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). A cool one-hundred million barrels have been released in the past 12 months.

We’ve been buyers of the energy-price dip because:

1. The SPR release—or our “Biden barrel discount”—can’t  go on forever.

The market’s reaction to Jay Powell’s “hawkish” Jackson Hole rant was interesting. He spoke for eight minutes. Stocks crashed for the rest of the trading session and have continued lower since.

Funny because I didn’t hear anything new. The mid-summer sucker’s rally was based on the hope that Powell would “pivot” early in 2023 and lower rates again.

He can’t unless the economy is really in the tank by then. Like “deep recession” bad. Otherwise, inflation is going to come back.

Larry Summers compared it to skimping on a doctor’s prescription. If you stop taking your antibiotics too soon, the infection comes back.… Read more

Relax. You might already have enough money to retire on.

My favorite dividend stocks let people retire comfortably on $600,000 or so.

Got more cash? Great! You’re in elite company.

Fidelity Investments—apparently happy to share its customer’s financial info anonymously—says it has more than 750,000 seven-figure 401(k) and IRA accounts.

That sounds like a lot, but it means less than 1% of Americans have $1 million or more saved for retirement. And that’s OK—select dividend stocks can help us retire comfortably on $600,000 or less.

Sure, a chunk of money is great. Especially when we can leave it untouched and let it grow.… Read more

There’s a group of dividend stocks out there that are set to skyrocket as the new “Biden buyback tax” rolls in.

These “dividend moonshots” are hiding in plain sight. Most people miss them because they’re looking at the wrong numbers: they’re obsessed with “first level” measures like dividend yields, P/E ratios or whatever.

But we second-level thinkers only need one indicator to find these cash machines, which are poised to profit in a surprising way as the new tax takes effect. I’m talking about a potent number called shareholder yield.

This metric isn’t on any screener, so it takes a couple minutes’ legwork to figure out.… Read more

Let’s not be idiots chasing this bear market rally. OK?

Safe dividend stocks, fine. That’s what we’re going to talk about today. A trio of stability and sanity that doesn’t care if we see a September swoon or October keel over.

Yes, in bear markets like these we sell the rips. But we still buy the dips—we just make sure we do it smartly. And keep it low beta.

Duke Energy (DUK), for example, has a 5-year beta of 0.34. This means it moves only 34% as fast as the market.

In other words, on days when the S&P 500 is down 3%, this stock should decline a mere 1.5% or so.… Read more

Sell ‘em if you got ‘em.

And c’mon, we all have ‘em.

Let’s think back a few months. Which stocks are we still holding now that we wish we had sold then?

I’m talking about the dividend dogs that, if we’re being honest, are not deserving of long-term positions in our retirement portfolios.

These mutts have had a fun summer—good for them (and us). Now let’s find them a nice home in another portfolio.

Why the deadline? September swoons are common. The Wall Street guys return from their Hampton homes and sell everything that rallied in August.

The summer rally (recently ended?)… Read more

Bad news for your friends who only own “America’s ticker”—the S&P 500. We’re set up for a September swoon that could easily send the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) down 5% or more from current levels.

Good news for us income investors—we’re going to have a great dip to buy some of our favorite dividend payers.

We’ll talk about the best dividend stocks for September in a moment. We’ll specifically highlight two “low-drama dividends,” too.

First, let’s discuss why we need to get ready for a pullback.

History Points to a September Swoon …

For one, if we look back to 1945, as the folks at CFRA Research did, we’ll see that September has been the worst month for stocks, with positive returns just 45% of the time.… Read more

The world needs to produce more food to feed everyone in the years ahead. Period.

Food shortages are likely to be an unfortunate megatrend of the 2020s. Rising  food demand is intersecting with another megatrend: shaky global supply chains.

Consider this bleak outlook from the U.N. World Food Programme’s 2022 outlook (emphasis mine):

I’m proud to report that, for the first time in months, I “only” paid $100 for gas.

There was a catch. The pump had a $100 credit card limit!

Which begs the follow up question: Does your dividend strategist intentionally pump gas in the sketchiest neighborhoods he can find?

As a big guy in a Bills hat, who tends to traverse before the streetlights come on, perhaps I’m game for an adventure.

Fortunately for my wallet, my “soccer dad mobile” traverses a narrow grid. To the kids’ school. The gym. The park. Grocery store. One mile at a time.

A tank can last for weeks, which is helpful.… Read more

Fed Chair Jay Powell is probably going to hike us straight into a recession—and even then, Jay still may not get the 2% inflation he’s hunting for.

Why? Because the supply-chain chaos we’re dealing with now is not going away. It’s part of a megatrend I expect to last the rest of this decade, and well beyond.

I’ll name two stocks we can tap to reap strong gains and fast-growing dividends from what many are calling the “end of globalization” in a moment. First, let’s dive into this critical shift, because it will drive, well, pretty well everything in our lives for years to come.… Read more