Author Archive: David Peltier

Investors shrugged off an inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and domestic stock market averages ended the first quarter with 10%-plus gains across the board.

Trade talks resumed with China this week, as a U.S. delegation, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, visited Beijing. The sides are expected to continue discussions next week in Washington D.C.

Inverse Reaction

There was a negative initial reaction to the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield falling below that of the benchmark 10-year note, but rates and investor sentiment leveled off throughout the week.

An inversion of the yield curve often (but not always) predicts an upcoming economic recession.… Read more

The Fed poured cold water on its growth outlook this week, all but taking the possibility of a 2019 interest rate hike off the table.

Following reports of slower growth in China and Europe in recent months, the FOMC lowered its U.S. growth outlook for 2019 and 2020 on Wednesday, to 2% and 1.9% respectively.

Chairman Powell also said that U.S. economy was falling short of inflation targets and the Fed’s internal projections for two rate hikes in 2019 fell to zero.

The move came almost three months to the day that the FOMC unanimously (and controversially) raised interest rates, sparking a massive wave of selling last December.… Read more

U.S. Markets rebuffed negative headlines from around the globe this week, bouncing back from losses suffered earlier in March.

Boeing (BA) lost 11% combined over Monday and Tuesday, following a second tragic crash of its 737 MAX airplane that led to a global grounding of more than 300 of the company’s jets. The decline single-handedly accounted for a loss of more than 300 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 48 hours.

The discussion if, when and how Brexit will proceed continues to play out across the pond, without a resolution. Theresa May lost a second vote in Parliament on Wednesday; and then the decision for the U.K.… Read more

After a record hot start in the first two months of 2019, U.S. stocks cooled off during the first week of March.

Slower economic growth prospects around the globe this week caused global investors to take some risk off the table and shift buying into bonds.

On Monday, China lowered its 2019 GDP growth expectation to 6%-6.5%. The country’s economy grew 6.6% in 2018, which was its slowest rate in three almost decades. Later in the week, China said that exports fell more than 20% in February, marking the worst performance in nearly three years.

On Thursday, the ECB reinstated its targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO), to help stimulate economic growth in the region.… Read more

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 fell each of the final three trading days of the month, but all of the major U.S. stock indexes still finished February more than 3% higher. The result is the best two-month start for the S&P 500 since 1991.

Investors have certainly been playing offense in the first two months of 2019, as the following chart shows. Industrial and technology names have led the way higher year-to-date, while defensive sectors (healthcare and utilities) have lagged.

Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Minimal Trade Progress in Asia

President Trump was in Vietnam this week, meeting with Kim Jong Un of North Korea.… Read more

The U.S. and China held another round of trade talks in Washington D.C. this week, ahead of the looming March 1 deadline for potential tariff increases. Trading activity was relatively quiet during the holiday-shortened week and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended an eight-session winning streak on Thursday.

Fed on Hold, Q4 GDP on Deck

Investors digested the minutes from the January FOMC meeting on Wednesday and Fed funds futures are now factoring in a 92% probability that the committee will take no action with interest rates in either direction in 2019.

Looking ahead to next week, Fed Chairman Powell will be on Capitol Hill on Feb.… Read more

Investors celebrated a compromise in Washington D.C. that allowed the U.S. government to avoid another shutdown ahead of a long weekend. As a reminder, the U.S. markets will be closed next Monday, for the President’s Day holiday.

This week, traders also took solace that trade talks with China appeared to improve. President Trump discussed delaying an upcoming decision on March 1 to increase tariffs and China’s own January trade data showed a surprise 9.1% increase of exports.

Earnings Guidance Trending Lower

On the earnings front, Coca-Cola (KO) turned flat and lost 8% a day after cutting its annual profit outlook. According to Bespoke Investment Group, the beverage producer’s lower guidance is part of a larger trend.… Read more

Macro headlines drove the trading action this week. On Wednesday, the Bank of England lowered its 2019 growth forecast to 1.2%, which would represent the worst performance in a decade. The European Commission also cut its target for 2019 growth in the Eurozone on Thursday, to 1.3%.

Elsewhere, reports circulated this week that President Trump would meet with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un later this month. However, volatile trade talks with China took a turn for the worse and Trump said on Thursday he will not speak with President Xi before a looming deadline on March 1, for increased tariffs on Chinese imports.… Read more

The busiest week for earnings so far this quarter delivered several positive surprises, as the broader U.S. market averages finished off the best January performance in three decades.

Industrial and Energy stocks were the big winners for the month, led by an 18% gain in the underlying price of crude oil. On the other hand, Utility and Healthcare names have lagged in the opening weeks of 2019.

FOMC Flinches and Jobs Growth Surprises

There was little belief that Chairman Powell and the Fed would change interest rates on Wednesday, but the tone of their commentary did turn decidedly more dovish this week.… Read more

The broader stock market averages digested recent gains this week, as trading activity was shortened by the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.

Trade talks with China appear to have reached a stalemate, as U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Thursday that the two sides were “miles and miles” apart from settling trade issues. Back at home, the Federal government shutdown found a temporary solution on Friday. The deal re-opens government operations through Feb. 15, as Congress and the White House will continue to discuss border security.

Earnings Season in Full Force

Despite the holiday, it was a busy week for earnings.… Read more