Author Archive: Brett Owens

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell is scared. First, it was UK pension funds. Now, the entire banking system has liquidity issues.

Fourteen years of quantitative easing is a tough habit to break! We are one year into the Fed’s attempt to tighten monetary conditions.

Should we buy bargains? Or sell now and go shopping later?

Fellow contrarians want to know! Our Contrarian Outlook customer service line has been hot. Today, we’ll put on our short-term thinking caps and discuss your dividend trading questions.

Q: Do you see any good buys among the regional banks where the “baby got thrown out with the SVB bathwater?”… Read more

We’re going to ride this Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) fiasco to big dividend payouts—I’m talking yields up to 12.6%!—and quick upside, too.

I’ll walk you through exactly what we’re going to do below. Then I’ll name two unloved (for now!) dividends we’ll target.

We’re Not Dropping a Quarter Into GameStop II

One thing we’re not going to do is sell anything short—even though, as Bloomberg recently told us, the “shorts” cleaned up on SVB. All in, they pocketed $2 billion as “tech bros’” fav bank froze, then crashed.

We contrarian dividend players tip our hats to these daring degenerates. They rolled the dice and things broke their way.… Read more

Insiders may sell their shares for a variety of reasons. Usually, because they need the cash.

But execs who know “what’s up” with their company better than anyone only buy with one purpose in mind.

They believe their stock price is going higher. Or, if it’s a dividend stock, at least it is not going down anytime soon!

We’re going to highlight dividends up to 15.8% (yes, that’s no typo) with recent insider buying. This is especially notable these days because:

• Vanilla investors are worried this is 2008, Part Deux.
• Inflation is still running hot.
• And stocks have been going down for 15 months and counting.

Generally, recessions are bullish for bonds. Which makes this 4% bond yield a “best recession bet.”

Why are we talking bonds when, over the past 18 months, they have all been crushed? Well, that’s the reason. The cure for poor bond performance is the high yields that are now staring us in the face. We look forward, not backward.

If you took our cue and used cash under your mattress as a bond proxy lately, then you are sitting pretty. Because now, we finally have attractive fixed-income yields!

Granted, safety is the key here. Remember, we are picking an economic slowdown as our catalyst.… Read more

Right now we’ve got a terrific setup happening in Treasuries—and we’re going to use it to “flip” the near-4% yield the 10-year pays into a gaudy 7.9%+, paid monthly, to boot.

And there’s more: we’re going to give ourselves a rare “double discount” on our bond buys.

We’ll do it by taking already-discounted bonds (thanks to Jay Powell’s Dirty Harry act on rates) and applying a second discount by purchasing through two closed-end funds (CEFs) we’ll talk about in a bit.

The window to use this strategy is now open. Take a look at this chart to see what I’m getting at here:

The 10-Year Rate Bounces Off Its 4% Ceiling (Again)

Over the past 15 years, the yield on the 10-year has zoomed higher plenty of times, until it smacks into the 4% “ceiling.”… Read more

Most vanilla investors like to buy stocks that are well-liked by Wall Street analysts.

This strategy, my contrarian friend, we know is a recipe for disaster.

Why? Well, firms that are already popular with stock jocks have nowhere to go but down. Discarded names, on the other hand, are where the action is because these are the next “analyst upgrade” candidates.

These prices have little downside and lots of upside!

It is difficult to find these out-of-favor plays because most analysts wear rose-colored glasses. They know how their bread gets buttered, and that’s with a bullish outlook.

Which is why a Sell rating is so darned interesting to us.… Read more

“Do you have cherries?” my buddy Ralph asked over the phone.

It was January 2021. Sports bars here in California were closed, so we naturally turned our backyard into one.

“No,” I replied. And sighed in an honest admission. “Only beer. Lots of beer.”

“No problem. I got ‘em.”

My buddy also had a mini-keg of delicious old-fashioneds. His creations were dangerously delicious. He’d begun making and aging fine adult beverages to pass time in the pandemic.

And the maraschino cherries he brought played no small role in his cocktail’s critical acclaim.

Is it five o’clock yet? Just kidding (mostly). We are talking about maraschinos in a dividend column because we finally have some bond funds worth cherry picking.… Read more

All of my indicators are telling me that oil is getting set to rip higher. And when it does, we’re going to be ready with two funds throwing off outsized 9% dividend yields!

How can I be so sure the goo is a coiled spring? Well, for one, the two underrated oil funds we’ll discuss below trade at huge discounts to their “true” value. Right now, we can buy them for less than 90 cents on the dollar.

That gives our oil gains an extra boost. And if oil does break lower from here—something I see as highly unlikely—we’re still getting some nice downside protection, thanks to those very same discounts.… Read more

With a recession likely at some point, we’re going to focus our attention today on recession-resistant dividend stocks.

With all the talk of a “soft landing” or even “no landing”—the nightmare inflation scenario in which the economy keeps humming—we contrarians are going to take a step back. And respect the yield curve.

In a normal economy, longer-dated bonds would pay more than shorter-dated issues. After all, more time, more things that can go wrong. Which is why you and I are smartly prepping for a recession, regardless of what the latest financial narrative is.

The 10-year Treasury bond has paid less than its 2-year cousin for many months and counting.… Read more

Finally, food! The kids had their slices. I had a break in my own conversation. And I was hungry after coaching and refereeing eight periods of second-grade basketball.

I took the opportunity to grab the greasiest slice of Margherita pizza on the tray and folded it like a proper East Coast refugee. And paused.

“Coach Brett?”

“Yeah buddy,” I replied to one of my players, slice still in hand.

“Do you have 40 cents?”

“No, sorry buddy.” I shrugged. And attempted to eat once again.

Then my daughter approached.

“Dad. Do you have 40 cents?”

Forty cents. That was pretty specific.… Read more