Author Archive: Brett Owens

Ignore the pundits’ petrified bleating over rising interest rates. Sure, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury has spiked to 2.9%, but you’re still not retiring on it!

Look at it this way: if you dropped, say, $500,000 into Treasuries tomorrow, you’d still only get $14,500 in income. That’s just a hair over the poverty line of $14,342 for two people aged 65+ living under one roof.

That’s an insult after a lifetime of hard work!

And it’s exactly why I’m going to show you 3 simple steps you can take to rack up safe dividends that average 6.6% now (and some go well beyond 9.4%).… Read more

I love nothing more than bargain real estate – especially if I can buy it with a single-click of my mouse (or one tap from my smartphone).

REITs (real estate investment trusts) are as cheap as they’ve been this decade. Prices are low, and yields are high – making this an ideal time to buy.

Unless, of course, their tenants are watching their own business models vanish before their very eyes. If clients can’t pay the rent, then their REIT landlords won’t be able to pay us our dividends.

And if we’re not banking dividends from REITs, then what’s the point?… Read more

The market’s historic bull run just hit a brick wall … and I couldn’t be more excited.

I’ve had my eye on three robust dividend growers for months. And thanks to this pullback, they finally trade at attractive prices (and pay a blended 6.5% yield!)

February saw the S&P 500 decline for the first time since October 2016 – the month before Donald Trump was elected president. The index dipped 3.9% as every last sector dipped into the red. And with a little shove at the start of March, stocks have lost just about all their gains in 2018.

Stocks are Effectively Flat for 2018

Compared to the past year-plus, it feels like blood in the streets, sidewalks and gutters.… Read more

After a decade in the basement, interest rates are finally starting to move meaningfully higher. Let’s discuss the best stocks and bonds to buy with this backdrop.

If it feels like we had forever to prepare our portfolios for this moment – well, we did. This interest rate run has largely taken place on a treadmill. We’re almost two-and-a-half years into the Fed’s current rate hike cycle, and the Fed Funds rate is up a modest 1.25%.

Meanwhile the 10-year Treasury rate hadn’t really moved until recently. At all. The benchmark long bond now pays 2.86%:

Rates Slowly Grind Higher

If you believe your portfolio is behind the rate hike curve, it’s not by much.… Read more

Let me show you 3 headlines I ran across last week:

“Tax Cuts and Confidence Drive Surge of Payouts”
—Barron’s

“Global Dividends Break New Record in 2017, With More to Come for the Year Ahead”
—Institutional Asset Manager

“Trump’s Tax Cuts in Hand, Companies Spend More on Themselves Than Wages”
—New York Times

What do they have in common?

They’re all blaring out the fact that American companies have so much cash that they can’t ship it out to investors fast enough! Funny thing is, the herd is completely ignoring this fact. Check this out:

The Black Sheep …

We’re looking at the performance of the Vanguard Dividend Growth ETF (VIG), a good benchmark for stocks that consistently grow their dividend payouts, compared to the benchmark SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) as of March 1.… Read more

Legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) CEO Warren Buffett recently gave us an insight into the type of dividend-paying fund he’d invest in if he could:

“Our aversion to leverage has dampened our returns over the years. But (partner Charlie Munger) and I sleep well. Both of us believe it is insane to risk what you have and need in order to obtain what you don’t need.”

“Leverage” stands out because it’s a common tool used among several high-yield classes, from mortgage real estate investment trusts (mREITs) to business development companies (BDCs). Even closed-end funds (CEFs) – which some investors turn to for relative safety versus individual stocks given CEFs’ diverse portfolios – can sport high leverage of between 30% and 60%.… Read more

I had to laugh when I saw this Barron’s headline last week:

“REITs Are Sending a Powerful Buy Signal”

My response? Of course they are! They have been for a while now!

If you’ve been following my articles on Contrarian Outlook, you know I’m a big fan of real estate investment trusts, with their outsized dividends (and dividend growth) and upside potential.

And now the press is finally paying attention.

It is satisfying when the pundits finally catch up to us. But the bad news is that it also means our shot at the biggest gains (and dividends) is likely on borrowed time as the headline-driven herd piles in.… Read more

Insider buying can be a useful tool in identifying stocks that may be ready to move. I typically don’t put much weight into analyst recommendations because they don’t have any skin in the game. But when CEOs and other executives – who know more about the company than you and I – put their money where their mouths are and make significant purchases, I listen.

And I’ve had my ear especially close to the ground over the past few weeks. Market chaos like what we’ve seen of late chums the water, turning insiders into frenzied buyers who think they can get a deal.… Read more

Most of your friends are going to struggle to make any money in U.S. stocks for the next five to seven years. They’re battling not one, not two, but three major headwinds:

1. Low yields,
2. High valuations, and
3. Rising interest rates.

Historically, half of the stock market’s returns (or more, depending on the study you believe) have come from dividends. With the S&P 500 paying just 1.8%, the math isn’t promising.

An expensive market is also problematic because it makes rising multiples unlikely. The S&P index trades for 25-times earnings today – where can it really go from here but down?

Finally, rising interest rates are a concern for many income investors.… Read more

Let’s assume that higher long-term rates (3%+) are here to stay. Can REITs (real estate investment trusts) and high rates co-exist? Or must there be just one winner in this suddenly one-sided tug of war?

After all, as the 10-year Treasury’s yield has rallied, REITs have suspiciously suffered:

REITs and Rates: Oil and Water?

And the headline arguments against REITs during rising rate periods seem to make sense:

• REITs need cheap money to grow, and
• When risk-free assets pay more, income investors will buy them instead of REITs.

These knocks may apply to low-yielding shares, especially static payers, but they historically haven’t applied to firms (REIT or otherwise) that have been able to grow their payouts meaningfully as rates have risen.… Read more