Author Archive: Michael Foster

The S&P 500 now sports a price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26—a huge number at a time when corporate profits are actually down more than 5% since 2014.

You read that right. Investors appear to be overpaying for falling profits.

Look closer and things seem scarier. In August 2000, at the height of the dot-com bubble, the S&P 500 had a P/E ratio of 28, just 6% above its current level. If the stock market continues to perform as it has in the last few months, we could get to that same level by summer.

Then look at volatility.

The CBOE Volatility Index, often called the “fear indicator,” is currently 13 and was below 10 just a few months ago.… Read more

We might be at the start of a correction. This doesn’t mean it’s time to sell, but it does mean it’s time to be really, really choosy.

Just look at financial stocks. I’ve been closely following this sector and timing buys and sells for myself based on the market’s irrational overreactions to news.

That means I recommended buying financials in August 2016, then recommended avoiding the sector at the end of last month. Here’s what’s happened since then:

Financials Drop, Utilities Jump

So financials have underperformed everything else. But it’s still too early to jump into the sector, since it’s still up 21% over the past year.… Read more

There’s no way around it: the S&P 500 now has a P/E ratio of more than 26 going into the first earnings season of 2017, and even the “safest” bets are starting to look scary.

Unless we see massive profit growth all around, there’s a real risk this bull market is going to stutter—or worse.

So where do you go for value? It’s getting harder than ever, but there is one corner of the market that got way ahead of the S&P 500 and has since taken a step back. I’m talking about real estate investment trusts (REITs).

And now, there are three REITs that combined provide over 9% in income with over 200% average dividend coverage.… Read more

Vanguard is killing it. They’re now the biggest money manager in the world, with a whopping $4 trillion in assets under management.

It’s a feel-good story for a lot of investors, since the low-fee index fund juggernaut has marketed itself as the humble alternative to the high-rolling Wall Streeters who have become the target of public ire since the global financial crisis.

The feel-good story is simple. Vanguard has low overhead, pays its executives relatively modestly and passes those savings on to investors. Because of lower fees, the investors win; because of economies of scale, Vanguard wins; and because of the efficient-market hypothesis, which says hot-shot analysts can’t consistently outperform the stock market in the long run, the only people who don’t win are those evil banksters.… Read more

Plenty of investors buy corporate bonds because they think they’re safe investments.

That makes sense. After all, you do get your principal back at maturity. But corporates still have plenty of risks—particularly now, with interest rates arcing higher.

That’s why I’m recommending another asset class that’s set to deliver even higher yields and fatter capital gains—with much less to fear from interest rates. More on that in a moment.

First, let’s unpack these ideas one by one, starting with why so many investors just can’t kick their corporate-bond habit: corporates tend to offer higher yields than stocks while giving you exposure to the same companies.… Read more

In a crazy bull market like this, you may feel like it’s impossible to lose.

That’s a dangerous feeling. Because there are a few loser stocks out there—although admittedly there are far more winners than losers.

Still, if you’re holding on to one of the big loser stocks right now, you can’t be blamed for feeling bad about it. How can you be losing money when the S&P 500 is up a whopping 18% from a year ago?

You might even be thinking about giving up on stocks. You might think the market is rigged and there’s no way for anyone off of Wall Street to compete.… Read more

I know I don’t have to tell you that risk management is one of the keys to successful long-term investing.

But here’s the strange thing: most responsible, risk-conscious investors underperform the market—and not by a little.

Why?

Because the reality of risk management is not the conventional wisdom frequently peddled by financial advisors. They warn that taking on too much risk will threaten your life savings, so you need to choose an extremely conservative fund and invest for the long term.

That’s close enough to the truth to sound convincing—but unfortunately it’s wrong. (I’ll show you two funds that upend the “conventional” wisdom—and deliver consistent market-beating gains—in just a moment.)… Read more

Utilities are a particularly enjoyable sector for income investors because they offer sustainable and growing dividends—if you choose the right companies.

This boring and predictable model means utilities tend to attract risk-averse investors who jump out during times of extreme caution—even when there’s really nothing to be cautious about. That’s why the Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLU) erased much of its 2016 gains in the second half of the year, when the months leading up to the presidential election led to market panic.

Surprising Volatility

What’s even more interesting is that utilities continued to fall even after Donald Trump won and the so-called “Trump rally” began.… Read more

Let’s face it: people make a lot of stupid mistakes.

You see it every day: they turn on to the freeway without signaling. They fall for obvious scams. They throw money away on useless things.

But here’s the good news: It’s possible—even easy—for savvy investors to profit from humanity’s lousy judgment.

How? By being a contrarian.

Contrarian investing means heading away from the crowds: buying heavily when everyone is fleeing in fear and selling when everyone says the asset is a sure thing. (I’ll show you 2 unloved funds ready to pop—plus 2 overbought names ready for a fall—in just a moment.)… Read more