I’ve been getting worried emails from investors lately, and most are about one of two big fears:

1. That a 2008-style market collapse and recession are on our doorstep, and …
2. America’s spiraling debt will drive it into bankruptcy.

So today I’m going to give you my take on both.

Investor Worry No. 1: Is a Recession Looming?

The first question: are we headed for a recession? This one nearly broke my inbox during the late 2018 pullback, when I said that drop was a timely buying opportunity.

Not only has growth remained above 2% this year, but low unemployment, rising sales for US companies and higher incomes have all continued, without triggering inflation.… Read more

This week we’re going to get a bit greedy (responsibly, of course) and discuss fast double-digit gains from safe dividend stocks. Many of you probably sat back and enjoyed Arbor Realty Trust’s (ABR) “parabolic” move to the upside in recent weeks. Since we purchased Arbor for our Contrarian Income Report portfolio in July 2018, we’ve enjoyed epic 60% total returns!

This Tree Might Grow to the Sky

We paid $10.85 per share and have already collected $1.51 in dividends, about 14% of our initial capital—in 16 months!

Payouts alone have provided a solid return, but it’s been the price gains that have really made this stock a winner.… Read more

Looking for a 27%+ gain in 2020? Then you’d better buy now. But you won’t want to go near the media darlings most folks gamble on: I’m looking at you, Tesla (TSLA).

Instead, we’ll ride to 27%+ gains with some of the sleepiest stocks out there! I’m talking about dividend payers—and better yet dividend growers. I’ll show you three names and a powerful (and simple) strategy you can start using now shortly.

First, let me tell you why, even with the S&P 500 popping new records daily, there’s still plenty of upside left as we roll into 2020.

2020 Market Drivers: The Election and the Fed 

The first?… Read more

There’s nothing worse than watching your cash drain away in a downturn—especially if you’re near retirement and don’t have the time to bounce back. That’s why I’m hearing so much fear these days that 2020 could be another 2008.

Luckily, there’s a simple way to protect your nest egg. It involves 17 unique funds that let you hold the S&P 500 companies you know well, but with two key differences:

• Steady returns: These 17 funds have delivered an annualized 8%+ in dividends and gains over the past decade.
• Massive dividends: at an 8.1% average dividend, these 17 funds hand you cash payouts 4.5-times bigger than the average S&P 500 stock.

Big brand names can’t rely on their past “glory days” forever. Today we’re going to make sure you don’t hold any “household name has beens” in your retirement portfolio.

I’m talking about washed up brands like Tupperware (TUP). The yesteryear firm’s shareholders just received yet another brutal reminder of the fickleness of brands in 2019.

Earlier this month, I pointed out the danger in blindly diving into high yields like Tupperware’s, which only hit double digits because its stock had been pelted so badly. Mere days later, shares of the ubiquitous container company sank to new all-time lows as Tupperware did the inevitable.… Read more

Where are we to put our money in this levitating market—and how do we dodge the (many) overpriced stocks (and funds) ready for a fall?

Today I’m going to answer both questions, with one group of investments that are way overvalued—even though they look like bargains. Buy these “value traps” and you’re primed for a fast double-digit plunge (or worse).

Then we’ll move on to a group of 10 closed-end funds (CEFs) that are the opposite—most folks wrongly think these conservative, steady-Eddie buys are tapped out, but they’ve still got plenty of gains (and dividends up to 10%!) ahead.

Earnings and Share Prices Part Ways

I say “levitating market” because we’re seeing stocks soar—up 24% year to date—while that gain doesn’t, at first blush, seem supported by earnings: third-quarter profits are down 2.4% year over year, and have been down for three quarters in a row.… Read more

Interest rates are the talk of the bond world right now. They are going up for once!

Does this mean we should book profits on our fixed-rate bond positions? They have benefited greatly from sliding interest rates throughout 2019 (and that’s an understatement).

Most income investors are thrilled to see 4% or 5% returns from their bond funds. What they wouldn’t give for the eight-pack of “bond moonshots” we contrarians have enjoyed for 25% average returns!

How We Made 25% in 11 Months with Safe Bonds

Yet I’m sitting here at the Inside Fixed Income conference (the bores I endure for you, dear subscriber) in San Diego, California (well… never mind) hearing about the $74 billion now held in bond ETFs.… Read more

Real estate investment trusts (REITs) have momentum now. And don’t let their terrific 2019 scare you—next year is setting up to be even better thanks to Jay Powell’s gang of doves!

I’ll reveal three strong REITs for 2020 at the end of this article. Together they give you growing dividends that double (and even triple) the market’s payout. And to be honest, one isn’t exactly a REIT—it’s a REIT-owning closed-end fund (CEF) that drops a huge 6.5% dividend into your account every month.

REITs: The Ultimate Rate-Proof Play

First, no matter what Jay Powell says, you can take this to the bank: more rate cuts are on the table as the on-again, off-again trade war lingers and the president batters the poor fellow tweet by tweet.… Read more

I’m going to show you my favorite (perfectly legal) way to pay 0% tax on your dividend income.

To show you the big savings this could mean, let’s look at two fictional investors who are nearing retirement: Jane and Janet.

We’ll assume both are single, are earning $50,000 per year and live in a state with no income taxes. Now let’s assume Janet has taken the so-called “right” path, as suggested by her financial advisor, while Jane has steered her own course. A quick look at both will show how that “right” path can create a hefty tax problem.

Let’s say Janet put a million dollars in the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) because she’s been told that a low-cost index fund is best for retirement.… Read more

Are interest rates heading to zero in the US? Or, dare I say, negative range?

I don’t think so. But if they do, real estate investment trusts (REITs) are going to absolutely skyrocket. This year-to-date has been a sneak preview. Most REITs have seen their valuations expand with the market rally, but we haven’t missed out on all of them.

In a minute, we’ll discuss a trio of dirt-cheap REITs with attractive yields between 5% and 6%. But first, let me show you just how overstretched this market has become.

First, let’s look at the “Shiller PE.” This is the “second-level” price-to-earnings ratio, created by legendary economist Robert Shiller, that factors in average inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade.… Read more