Investors shrugged off an inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve and domestic stock market averages ended the first quarter with 10%-plus gains across the board.

Trade talks resumed with China this week, as a U.S. delegation, including Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, visited Beijing. The sides are expected to continue discussions next week in Washington D.C.

Inverse Reaction

There was a negative initial reaction to the 3-month U.S. Treasury yield falling below that of the benchmark 10-year note, but rates and investor sentiment leveled off throughout the week.

An inversion of the yield curve often (but not always) predicts an upcoming economic recession.… Read more

Today, the 10-year Treasury pays just 2.4%. Put a million bucks in T-Bills and you’re banking $24,000 per year. Barely above poverty levels!

Hence the appeal of closed-end funds (CEFs), which often pay 8% or better. That’s the difference between a paltry minimum-wage income of $24,000 on a million saved or a respectable $80,000 annually.

And if you’re smart about your CEF purchases, you can even buy these funds at discounts and snare some price upside to boot!

The market’s fast run-up since January 1 has made cheap CEFs just a bit harder to find. And some CEFs have become so pricey that, if you hold them, you should consider selling before their premiums fall to earth.… Read more

Every so often, a CEF Insider subscriber asks if I see oil-related closed-end funds (CEFs) as solid income plays. You might be wondering the same, given the surge in oil prices—and oil stocks—since the start of 2019.

Today we’re going to answer that question. Along the way, we’ll uncover an energy CEF you need to steer clear of, no matter how you feel about oil.

Let’s start by making a quick run through history: what would have happened if you invested in energy CEFs over the last few years?

Source: CEF Insider

While the last three years have seen a decent average annualized return, and a negative return if you got in five years ago.… Read more

The yield curve is now “inverted.” This warning has preceded “seven of four” recent bear markets (more on this in a moment). Time to be safe and sell everything?

Before we stash cash in the mattress, let’s review the actual facts. Fundamental Capital’s Troy Bombardia, one of my favorite historical finance quants, has run the numbers on what happens to the S&P 500 when the 10-year “long” yield dives below the three-month rate:

• In 1966, 1973, 2000 and 2006, an inverted yield curve indeed preceded a big stock market pullback (usually by a year or two).

• Meanwhile in 1978, 1980 and 1989 it didn’t mean much.

Don’t become complacent with your dividends! Your portfolio and your income are at the whim of Fed Chair Jerome Powell—now more than ever.

I realize he’s acting like a “good boy” at the moment. But what if JP decides to go rogue again and exercise his independence? A surprise rate hike would be catastrophic to many income portfolios.

That means you need to “Fed-proof” your nest egg and your dividends. Today we’ll discuss four funds paying dividends up to 10.7% that do just that.

These four closed-end funds (CEFs) have been left for dead in this market rally. That makes them great “Fed insurance”: they’re cheap, so they’ve got built-in upside if the rally goes into overtime.… Read more

If you want to diversify, get a strong—and growing—dividend and dodge risky speculation, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) may seem like a no-brainer.

But buying this fund would be a huge mistake!

Today I’m going to show you why, and help you avoid a couple other seemingly obvious moves that could steer you into big trouble. Further on, I’ll reveal a terrific fund paying an outsized monthly dividend (yielding 7.9%) to buy now and tuck away for two decades or more.

First, back to SDY, which has beaten the S&P 500 over the past decade:

SDY Throws Us the Bait …

At the same time, the fund has shown solid dividend growth, as well as some massive special dividends that have helped its payouts grow substantially over the years:

… and Sets the Hook

So why not just buy this fund and call it a day?… Read more

The Fed poured cold water on its growth outlook this week, all but taking the possibility of a 2019 interest rate hike off the table.

Following reports of slower growth in China and Europe in recent months, the FOMC lowered its U.S. growth outlook for 2019 and 2020 on Wednesday, to 2% and 1.9% respectively.

Chairman Powell also said that U.S. economy was falling short of inflation targets and the Fed’s internal projections for two rate hikes in 2019 fell to zero.

The move came almost three months to the day that the FOMC unanimously (and controversially) raised interest rates, sparking a massive wave of selling last December.… Read more

Almost every corner of the market is overpriced today. That includes dividend stocks, which cost too much and yield too little.

The S&P 500 is at multi-year highs in almost every valuation metric: P/E, P/B, P/S … you name it. And a lot of that froth is coming from traditional income sectors. Yardeni Research’s latest sector study shows that utility stocks, for instance, trade at 18 times estimates, at the very high end of its 10-year range. The sector’s typically high yields, meanwhile, have dried up to a mere 3%.

Hey! Where’d the Dividends Go?

The real estate industry is getting pricey, too, with the iShares U.S.… Read more

Today I’ll show you how I helped investors sidestep a “silent” payout cut in a popular closed-end fund (CEF). We’ll also look at how to approach this fan fave today—and how this tale can help us keep our nest eggs (and income!) safe.

Calling Out the Cool Kid

I’m talking about the PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI), which I flagged nearly two years ago, when it was at the height of its fame thanks to its outsized 9% dividend yield.

Even though first-level investors couldn’t get enough of PDI, I fired off a warning flare, writing that its massive 8.4% premium to net asset value (NAV, or the value of the corporate and government bonds and mortgage-backed securities it held) was under threat.… Read more

Many retirees like the idea of a “50/50” portfolio that’s half bonds and half stocks. There’s even research that shows withdrawal rates of 3% and 4% may be safer with this mix than they’d be with 100% stocks.

That’s all well and good but doesn’t concern me much. I’m a “No Withdrawal” guy. I spent many late nights in college working up Monte Carlo simulations, where we’d run scenarios 50,000 times to figure out the optimal placement of, say, ambulances in a city to minimize the average response time to an emergency. This type of fancy modeling can work well when you’re able to use the law of large numbers to map the likelihood of every possible situation.… Read more