If you’re one of the many investors counting on a 7% average yearly return from your portfolio—or better—you’re putting your retirement at risk.

You’ve probably heard this 7% figure before. It’s gospel for many financial planners, and even Warren Buffett brings it up from time to time. It’s the S&P 500’s average annual return, adjusted for inflation, between 1928 and 2014.

With a time frame like that, it seems like a safe bet, right?

Wrong. Because over the next several decades, we’re way more likely see average yearly returns of 4% to 6%—and probably toward the lower end of that range.… Read more

In the energy sector, a number of companies operate as master limited partnerships (MLPs) to avoid double taxation and offer a high income yielding asset for investors to buy on the open market. MLPs were solid performers until late 2014, when oil began to fall, looking desperately for a bottom that never seemed to come.

Oil remains far below its prices earlier this decade, and it may fall again to $30 per barrel. But if oil prices drop again, the decline won’t be as aggressive as the dramatic plunge we just saw.

Crude’s Breathtaking Drop

The chart continues to look ugly, but some tailwinds are likely to keep oil from falling below $30 for very long.… Read more

High yielding dividend stocks are an appetizing part of any portfolio and it’s easy to see why. They act as risk moderators, balancing out a portfolio and amplifying gains over time. But stocks are a lot like the surface of a placid lake with torrential currents underneath that may not be obvious at a glance.

Sometimes a juicy high yielding dividend stock isn’t all its cracked up to be and unwary investors snap up the bait only to realize their mistake after it’s too late. Remember the old adage, “if it looks too good to be true, then it probably is.”… Read more

Most investors think it’s a good thing to be long alongside the “Big Money.” But professionals’ favorites are actually the riskiest stocks you could own. Let me explain why – and share three beloved names you should sell today.

Ten days ago, Barron’s published its latest Big Money poll, where money managers shared their top stocks for the next 12 months. Three “digital utilities” were particularly popular, and why not? All three had reasonable valuations, strong cash flows and of course healthy dividends.

Last week, two reported earnings – and both got clobbered. Here’s how they’ve performed since their Barron’s love letter:

Big Money’s Tech Darlings Get Dumped

The beauty of an earnings report – and really any “news” a company reports – is in the eye of the beholder.… Read more

If you “sell in May and go away” this year, you could be putting a whole year’s worth of returns at risk.

Now is the time to be adding top-notch dividend stocks to your portfolio. I’ll give you four my “second-level analysis” has uncovered in a moment.

First, here’s why “sell in May” is a flawed strategy that could cost you money.

True, stocks typically struggle in the summer months: since 1950, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained an average of 0.4% from May through October, according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac, compared to a 7.5% rise from November through April.… Read more

On Wall Street, there’s a familiar saying: the next crisis won’t look like the last one. If true, it means the next crisis won’t be in the mortgage market—it will be somewhere else.

There are reasons to feel confident about this hypothesis. Mortgage delinquency rates are falling significantly, according to data from the Federal Reserve. Back in the first quarter of 2010, delinquencies on single-family mortgages peaked at 11.26% – they’ve declined steadily since, and are quickly approaching 5%.

Mortgage Delinquency Rates Continue to Decline

Several analysts believe that on-time mortgage payments will continue to improve. Delinquencies are still high by historic standards – throughout most of the 1990s and in the 2000s, defaults stayed below 3%.… Read more

The buy-the-headline crowd is at it again. This time, they’re dumping real estate investment trusts (REITs) based on a small uptick in 10-year bond yields.

Earlier this week, the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke through 1.90% after moving in a range between 1.70% and 1.80% for the better part of April.

As is often the case, the jump had the opposite effect on REITs. Here’s how the Vanguard REIT Index ETF (VNQ), my favorite REIT ETF and a good proxy for the sector, has performed in the past week:

Why the decline? Investors are worried rising rates will make REITs less attractive, as yields on so-called “safe” investments like Treasuries shoot higher.… Read more

There are two easy ways to make sure your portfolio beats the market averages, and most professionals too. The first you already know: Buy dividend payers, preferably those that boost their payout annually. The second is just as simple…

Buy the dividend raisers that analysts hate the most.

We see it repeatedly – the highest rated stocks lag the dogs. When every analyst is already bullish, the only possible change in grade is a downgrade!

Bespoke Investment Group ran the numbers for the first quarter of 2016. The S&P was roughly flat (up 0.8%), while the biggest dividend payers rolled (soaring 10.2% collectively).… Read more

Study after study has shown that stocks that pay dividends—and grow them every year—are the best way to beat the market. These payouts also give you “bear insurance” because they can tide you over when your investments hit a rough patch.

But just looking for companies that hike their dividends annually isn’t enough. You need strong dividend growth, too. So you’ll want to avoid stocks like AT&T (T), which has raised its quarterly dividend just $0.01 a year since 2008. Big deal!

With that in mind, I’d like to share three “anti-AT&Ts” my research has recently uncovered—undervalued gems poised to double their payouts in the next five years.… Read more